The US will soon undergo a significant leadership transition as Donald Trump prepares to take office as the 47th President in 2025, marking his second non-consecutive term. He will be joined alongside Vice President JD Vance. This comes along with other shifts within the US government, including the formation of a Republican trifecta, as the GOP gains control of both the House of Representatives and Senate.
Ms. Angela Mancini, Partner, Global Risk Analysis, Control Risks and Mr. Ashok Mirpuri, Former Singapore Ambassador to the United States; Head, International Policy & Governance, Temasek shared their analysis and insights of the upcoming Trump 2.0 administration, the future of America, and its potential impact on the ASEAN region in a dialogue organised by the Singapore Institute of International Affairs (SIIA), on 3 December 2024. SIIA’s Chairman, Associate Prof Simon Tay served as the moderator for the discussion.
Key takeaways
The US remains divided despite the decisive outcome of the 2024 US Presidential election, which saw strong support for Trump and the Republican party. The economy emerged as a key voting issue, with many voters perceiving the economic conditions during Trump’s first administration as more favourable compared to the present, under the Biden administration. Trump’s economic policies could benefit from the tailwinds of Biden’s economy, such as the low inflation rates. This might shape public perception, attributing any future economic challenges to previous administrations.
Trump will focus the next two years of his presidency term towards the 2026 midterm elections. It will stand to be a crucial period as the midterm results will decide who controls Congress as well as state legislatures and governor’s offices, hence also determining Trump’s power to implement his agenda. He is expected to start unwinding some of Biden’s policies, such as the Inflation Reduction Act, from Day 1 in office. His first 100 days as President will also be focused on pushing forward his “Make America Great Again” (MAGA) agenda. Trump believes in the idea of America first and holds MAGA as a core goal. His administration is expected to focus on policies aligned to this goal such as immigration, rolling back energy regulations and tariffs on China. Having created a group of “loyalists” over the years, Trump is unlikely to face the same challenges in establishing credibility as he did during his first term.
Tensions between the US and China are expected to continue under the Trump administration, with limited prospects for a re-bargain. Trump holds a “magical thinking” that imposing tariffs can be used to protect the domestic manufacturing economy and bring back jobs to the US. This view is supported by some Americans who perceive the US economy under Trump 1.0 to be better than Biden’s economy. This stance could have significant implications for the ASEAN region, especially for countries such as Vietnam that run a trade deficit with the US. ASEAN nations with largely export-dependent economies might need to recalculate their strategies.
A Trump 2.0 administration is likely to be more transactional and unilateral. Trump tends to avoid multilateral groupings, preferring bilateral arrangement with individual countries. This raises the possibility for the formation of more minilateral groupings. A weaker engagement from the US on a global stage may lead to other countries questioning their role and responsibility in issues such as trade and security, whilst also creating opportunities for them to step up to form their own smaller groupings. The ASEAN region is unlikely to be a primary focus for the US, but this could work to its advantage as it limits the chances of the bloc facing undue scrutiny under the Trump administration.
