Indonesia

GDP Growth – Better than Expected in the Third Quarter, but Dark Clouds Ahead

Indonesia’s economy experienced 5.17% year-on-year growth in the third quarter, according to Statistics Indonesia. This is above estimates by agencies such as Reuters. However, economists foresee the growth rate weakening further due to struggling exports amid lower commodity prices, trade tensions and the depreciating rupiah.

Sources: Financial Times, Jakarta Post, Straits Times

Budget 2019 – Space to Deal with Global Uncertainty, But with Possible Electioneering

The 2019 State Budget Bill was passed into law by the Indonesian House of Representatives on Wednesday, 1 November. The government is projected to spend US$161.84 billion, with a modest projected deficit of 1.84% of GDP to provide room to deal with global uncertainty. However, opposition presidential candidate Prabowo Subianto criticised the increase in President Joko Widodo’s “Village Fund” program in the Budget, questioning whether there was a political motive.

Sources: Reuters, Jakarta Post

Presidential Election 2019 – Prabowo Keen to Review Belt and Road Projects if Elected

SCMP reported in late October that Belt and Road projects in Indonesia are likely to be reviewed if Prabowo wins the 2019 election. According to Prabowo’s Director of Media and Communications, Hashim Djojohadikusumo, one project they would focus on is the US$5 billion Jakarta-Bandung High Speed Railway, which is seen as too costly.

Sources: SCMP

Malaysia

Malaysia-Japan Relations – Tokyo to issue Putrajaya Samurai Bonds worth US$1.77 billion

As mentioned during the announcement of Budget 2019 and Prime Minister Dr Mahathir Mohamad’s visit to Japan, Tokyo will issue Putrajaya a yen-denominated Samurai bond worth US$1.77 billion by March 2019. The bond, which will be guaranteed by the Japan Bank for International Cooperation (JBIC), will be used to retire some of the loans taken by the former Barisan Nasional government.

Sources: The Star, Nikkei Asian Review

Parti Keadilan Rakyat (PKR) Elections – Troubled Rafizi-Azmin Race to Conclude on 10 November

The Deputy Presidential race between incumbent Azmin Ali and his opponent, Rafizi Ramli will reach a conclusion in Sarawak on 10 November. While Azmin is currently ahead of Rafizi by 3,000 votes, the 13,000-vote strong Julau division is expected to play a crucial role as a kingmaker. Regardless, the troubled conduct of the election, marred with voting software glitches, accusations of “missing votes” and violence, is expected to present a challenge to the party’s new leadership.

Sources: The Star, The Star (Op-Ed)

Myanmar

NLD loses 6 of 13 contested seats in November 3 by-elections

By-elections were held on the 3^rd of November to fill parliamentary vacancies caused by the deaths of incumbent candidates over the previous year. The NLD had previously controlled all 13 vacated seats, and subsequently contested all 13 elections. It ultimately lost two of the five seats within the national parliaments – including the single contested seat in Myanmar’s upper house. It also lost 4 of the 8 contested seats in the regional and state parliaments, including in Seikkan township near the heart of its traditional support base in Yangon. Notably, 4 of the NLD’s 6 lost seats during this by-election were located in Myanmar’s ethnic states, indicating a possible shift in ethnic support away from the NLD.

Source: Myanmar Times

Singapore’s Foreign Minister addresses Rohingya issue in visits to Bangladesh and Myanmar

In early November, Singapore’s Foreign Minister Vivian Balakrishnan visited Rohingya refugee camps at Cox’s Bazar on the border of Bangladesh and Myanmar. He then visited Naypyidaw, where he discussed the issue of Rohingya repatriation with State Counsellor Aung San Suu Kyi. In a statement published on Facebook shortly afterwards, Minister Balakrishnan said that the State Counsellor had updated him on ground preparations for the first wave of repatriations of refugees back to Myanmar. Officials from Myanmar and Bangladesh stated in late October that the repatriation process would begin in earnest in Mid-November. The Minister also noted that Singapore and ASEAN would continue to assist Myanmar and Bangladesh in resolving the issue. Minister Balakrishnan’s visit comes just prior to the imminent 33^rd ASEAN Summit – to be held from November 11 to November 15 – where the Rohingya issue is likely to be a major priority for the grouping.

Sources: Dhaka Tribune, Straits Times

Myanmar still ranked #171 on the World Bank’s Ease of Doing Business Index

The World Bank Group released the 16^th edition of its flagship Doing Business report on the 31^st of October 2018. In it, Myanmar is listed as remaining at its previous position of #171 (of 190) on the rankings, which assesses countries through the use of indicators which measure the efficiency of their regulatory frameworks, vis-à-vis establishing and maintaining a business. This makes Myanmar the lowest-ranking country in ASEAN, and comes about despite ongoing changes to its regulatory frameworks. It should be noted that during the 43^rd Singapore Lecture in late August this year, State Counsellor Aung San Suu Kyi and the newly-appointed head of the Myanmar Investment Commission U Thaung Tun made note of Myanmar’s low rankings, and expressed their commitment to seeing it rise in coming years.

Sources: Myanmar Times, Doing Business Report 2019

Thailand

Thai Elections 2019 – Ban on Political Activity Could Be Lifted by December

Thai Prime Minister Prayuth Chan-ocha announced that the ban on political activity, imposed since the 2014 coup, will be lifted by December. The government had previously relaxed some restrictions in September, allowing political parties to hold internal elections and organise themselves. The lifting of the ban will allow political parties to openly campaign for the scheduled February election.

Sources: Straits Times, Bangkok Post

Thai Tourism – Thailand to Grant Visa-on-arrival Fee Waivers for Tourists from 20 Countries

Concerned about flagging tourist numbers during the traditional peak period, the Thai Cabinet agreed to waive the US$60.75 visa-on-arrival fee for tourists from 20 countries. The waiver will be in effect from December 1 2019 until the end of January. In addition, Chinese E-Commerce giant Alibaba will also help promote Thai tourism through a promotional video on its website.

Sources: Straits Times

Infrastructure – Sino-Japanese Cooperation to Benefit Thailand

China and Japan will cooperate in upgrading the Thai city of Chonburi as early as this year, in conjunction with their efforts to jointly develop third-country infrastructure. There are hopes that Sino-Japanese cooperation will spur more investment towards the Eastern Economic Corridor, though this hinges on Thailand’s ability to streamline its regulatory environment and maintain political stability.

Sources: Nikkei Asian Review, Bangkok Post