Indonesia

212 Reunion Rally Turns Political (2 Dec)

Hundreds of thousands of Indonesian Muslims gathered in Central Jakarta on Sunday, 2 December, to commemorate the second anniversary of widespread protests against Jakarta’s then-governor, Basuki “Ahok” Purnama. The rally also took on a political tone as Islam Defenders Front leader Rizieq Shihab implored his supporters to not vote for candidates backed by parties that supported “the blasphemer”, in a pointed barb at incumbent President Joko Widodo.

Sources: Tempo.co, The Jakarta Post

Uncertainty Over Lion Air’s Future Boeing Orders (4-5 Dec)

Lion Air, one of Indonesia’s largest airlines, is embroiled in a spat with Boeing over responsibility for the deadly 737 crash in late October. Reuters reported that Group Co-Founder Rusdi Kirana is examining the possibility of cancelling subsequent Boeing orders in the pipeline amounting to US$22 billion, although President Director Edward Sirait said that a decision has not been made yet.

Sources: Reuters, The Jakarta Post

Malaysia

Fake News Flurry in the Wake of Hindu Temple Riots (26 Nov)

Following the two-day riot over the attempted relocation of a Hindu temple on the outskirts of Kuala Lumpur, the Malaysian government stressed that the violence was a criminal issue instead of a “racial” one. However, fake messages being circulated on social media attempted to stoke such dissent, with one involving a series of manipulated photos to create the impression of nationwide public disorder. Given such tensions, an event to monitor will be the anti-ICERD (International Convention on the Elimination of All Forms of Racial Discrimination) demonstration planned for Saturday, 8 December.

Sources: Malay Mail, Channel NewsAsia

Finance Minister Lim Guan Eng said FDI in Manufacturing Increased between 2017 and 2018 (30 Nov)

Finance Minister Lim Guan Eng reported that approved Foreign Direct Investments (FDI) to Malaysia’s manufacturing sector amounted to US$11.8 billion between January and September 2018. This is 250% higher than the US$3.36 billion recorded for the same period in 2017. When the validity of these claims was questioned by Former-Prime Minister Najib Razak, Minister Lim clarified that the figure included potential investments as opposed to realised values found in Balance of Payments documents.

Sources: Malay Mail, The Star

Malaysia to Cut Oil Production to Help Stabilise Global Oil Prices (6 Dec)

Travelling to an Organisation of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) discussion in Vienna, Economic Affairs Minister Mohamed Azmin Ali expressed that he would seek to cut crude oil production by 20,000 barrels a day to stabilise global crude oil prices. Malaysia is not a member of OPEC, but it is still an oil exporter. Brent crude oil prices stood at US$61.43 per barrel on 6 December, compared to the baseline of US$70 that was assumed while formulating Budget 2019.

Sources: The Star, The Edge Markets

National Car Project to Receive R&D Grant (6 Dec)

Entrepreneur Development Minister Mohd Redzuan Yusof announced a grant for research and development (R&D) for the third national car project on 6 December. The size of the grant would be revealed by Prime Minister Dr Mahathir Mohamad. Minister Lim had said the project would not utilise public funds, but noted that the government had no qualms in providing allocations for R&D.

Sources: Malaysiakini, Free Malaysia Today, Malay Mail

Myanmar

Myanmar Project Bank of Public Investment Programs established (1 Dec)

Minister of Planning and Finance U Soe Win announced on the 1^st of December that a Project Bank of Public Investment Programs has been established to facilitate infrastructure project funding in line with the Myanmar Sustainable Development Plan (MSDP). The project bank will list prioritised public infrastructure projects so as to ensure that the flow of development assistance, the allocation of the budget, and private sector participation are aligned with the objectives of the MSDP.

Source: Myanmar Times

End of monsoon season sees fresh waves of Rohingya migration by sea (4 Dec)

20 men believed to be Rohingya fleeing from Myanmar have landed on Aceh in Indonesia to seek refuge. Difficulties in communication made it impossible to determine if they had departed from Cox’s Bazar in Bangladesh, or from Rakhine state itself. This incident comes about as a new wave of seaborne Rohingya migration begins following the end of the monsoon season, and reportedly threatens to rise to levels last seen in 2015. Last week, the Myanmar navy picked up 38 Malaysia-bound Rohingya in the Andaman sea and returned them to Rakhine state, where thousands of Rohingya live in displacement camps.

Source: The Guardian, Channel NewsAsia

EU vote on rice tariffs for Cambodia and Myanmar uncertain (5 Dec)

The European parliament has failed to achieve a “qualified majority” in ongoing debates regarding whether tariffs are to be imposed on rice imports from Cambodia and Myanmar, which rose to 360,000 tonnes in 2017. This follows a complaint from Italy regarding the collapse of prices for rice – which is grown in eight southern European nations – because of Cambodian and Burmese imports. In the event of a failure to achieve a “qualified majority” in any given vote, the European Commission is empowered to make the final call – which it has not yet done. It should be noted that this slate of potential tariffs is unrelated to the ongoing debates regarding the cessation of Myanmar’s unfettered access to EU markets under the Generalised System of Preferences scheme.

Source: Reuters

Thailand

More Policies Ostensibly Targeted at the Upcoming Election (29 Nov)

Recent moves by the Thai government have been interpreted as efforts to seek an electoral advantage. The Finance Ministry is planning to offer registered low-income earners SIM cards with a free internet plan, and implement a value-added tax (VAT) refund for shoppers who spend up to 20,000 baht from 1-15 February. In addition, the Election Commission has been accused of gerrymandering after the new electoral map appeared to redraw boundaries in favour of pro-junta parties.

Sources: Bangkok Post, Bangkok Post, Nikkei Asian Review

Rumours About an Impending Rate Hike Intensify (3 Dec)

While the Bank of Thailand has left its policy rate unchanged at 1.50% since April 2015, support for a rate hike among the seven-member Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) has steadily increased due to concerns about financial stability. Not all observers agree that a hike will definitely occur. Nonetheless, the next MPC meeting on 19 December will be an important event to monitor.

Sources: Bangkok Post, Bangkok Post, ING (Contrarian View)

PM Prayuth Likely to be Fielded by Palang Pracharat for the Election (3 Dec)

The Palang Pracharat party, led by four junta ministers, nominated incumbent Prime Minister Prayuth Chan-ocha as their Prime Ministerial candidate on 3 December. While PM Prayuth could still have been re-elected without a nomination under the new constitution, running with a party would lower the number of parliamentary votes needed to vote him in. PM Prayuth has not given a clear answer to this offer, and said that he will only do so after the ban on political activity is lifted in December.

Sources: Khaosod English, Bangkok Post

Democrats Join Three Other Parties in Boycotting Meeting with Junta (6 Dec)

The Democrat party has announced their intention to boycott a meeting with the junta on 7 December to discuss the upcoming election, with leader Abhisit Vejjajiva saying that the meeting would not entail meaningful discussion due to the presence of the National Council for Peace and Order. Pheu Thai, Thai Raksa Chart and the Future Forward party will also be boycotting the meeting.

Sources: The Nation