COVID-19 Updates

 Singapore: Circuit Breaker Extension and Growth Prospects Continue to Fall (21 Apr – Ongoing) 

Singapore Prime Minister Lee Hsien Loong announced on Tuesday, 21 April, that Singapore’s Circuit Breaker period would be extended by four weeks until 1 June. In addition, tighter measures would be introduced until 4 May. These included the closure of more kinds of businesses, controlled access to crowded areas such as supermarkets and official advice to travel alone when leaving one’s home. The government would also extend wage support for businesses, offer a new support grant scheme and other measures help blunt the economic impact of these restrictions. In total, these measures would cost the government S$3.8 billion, on top of the S$59.9 billion allocated in the three previous budget measures.

Sources: Gov.sg, Channel NewsAsia, The Straits Times

External agencies and institutions continued to downgrade Singapore’s growth prospects as news of extended restrictions emerged. Moody’s Analytics said that Singapore and Japan would be the Asian economies that struggled the most with the economic impact of the virus, especially given reports of a 2.2% contraction in Singapore’s gross domestic product (GDP) during the first quarter of 2020. Citigroup warned that the new restrictions could reduce Singapore’s GDP by 2 to 2.5% for every month of extension, and downgraded their forecast from a contraction of 6% to one of 8.5% for 2020. Local banks such as OCBC, UOB, Maybank and DBS bank lowered their growth forecasts, with the latter going from predicting a 2.8% contraction to predicting the economy will shrink 5.7% in 2020. DBS bank also warned that retrenchments may rise sharply to 45,600, more than any of the past recessions.

Sources: CNBC, The Straits Times, The Straits Times

Indonesia: PSBB Review, a Mudik Ban and Delays in the Omnibus Bill (16 Apr – Ongoing)

The Indonesian government announced plans to evaluate the implementation of large-scale social restrictions (PSBB), following reports that many non-essential workplaces were still ignoring official guidance to work remotely and implement physical distancing. At least two provinces (Jakarta and West Sumatra) and 16 municipalities and regencies across Indonesia have made successful requests to implement the PSBB to the Health Ministry, though other regions have implemented their own restrictions to combat COVID-19.

Amid these concerns, COVID-19 Task Force Chief Doni Monardo announced on 27 April that Jakarta, the outbreak’s epicentre in Indonesia, had successfully flattened the curve of new infections. His announcement was greeted with doubt, with many noting the lack of transparency from the Health Ministry’s data since the first cases of COVID-19 were confirmed in Indonesia in March. Monardo also said that he hoped for Indonesians to resume their normal lives by July, and pledged to increase testing “massively” between April and May (Note: Indonesia’s testing rate per million people is around 318, compared to over 24,600 for Singapore and 4,953 for Malaysia).

Sources: The Jakarta Post, The Jakarta Post, Channel NewsAsia

Indonesian President Joko Widodo “Jokowi” took the unexpected step to ban the Idul Fitri exodus, or mudik, for all Indonesians. Where he had previously banned civil servants from embarking on such journeys, he announced the extension of the ban, which covers public and private transportation between regions, which took effect on 24 April. Yet, the ban is expected to take a heavy toll on Indonesia’s airlines and transportation companies, necessitating further relief funds. Lawmakers also criticised Jokowi’s decision as coming too late, noting that many Indonesians had already left for home before his announcement, or had rushed home in the few days before the ban came into force.

Sources: Jakarta Globe, The Jakarta Post, The Jakarta Post, The Jakarta Post

Reports have emerged from Jakarta that discussions on the omnibus bill on job creation have been placed on hold. The bill sought to chip away at Indonesia’s extensive labour protections, and is part of a series of legislation that Jokowi sought to fast-track to make Indonesia more appealing to investors. It had already come under fierce criticism from unions when its details were leaked earlier this year. Now, with the Manpower Ministry and Workers Social Security Agency reporting that as many as 2.8 million people have lost their jobs as of Monday, 20 April, Jokowi announced that deliberations on the bill would be delayed.

Sources: The Jakarta Post, Nikkei Asian Review

Malaysia: (Another) MCO Extension and Deputy Ministers Charged for Flouting Social Distancing (23 Apr – Ongoing)

Weeks after announcing a second extension to the country’s Movement Control Order (MCO), Malaysian Prime Minister Muhyiddin Yassin announced that the deadline for the order would be extended for a third time to 12 May. The extension was intended to cover the upcoming Hari Raya period, in which Malaysians would return to their hometowns. The government initially announced that certain businesses such as barbers, hair salons and optical shops would be allowed to operate during the extended MCO. However, they subsequently issued a new order to continue the ban on these businesses after obtaining feedback from health experts. All the same, the MCO has taken its toll on local businesses, with a survey by the Department of Statistics (DOSM) finding that 47% of self-employed workers had lost their jobs.

Sources: Malay Mail, New Straits Times, Free Malaysia Today

Two Malaysian politicians, Deputy Health Minister Dr Noor Azmi Ghazali and Perak Executive Council Member Razman Zakaria pleaded guilty to breaching the MCO on Tuesday, 28 April 2020. The pair had been photographed having a meal together on 18 April, violating the regulations on social distancing and triggering an uproar. The pair were ordered to pay the maximum fine of 1,000 ringgit (US$229) for their crime. However, observers pointed out that 16,000 Malaysians have been fined or jailed for breaching lockdown rules in a similar manner, and questioned the justness of the sentence.

Sources: New Straits Times, The Star, Malay Mail, SCMP

Myanmar: Relief Package Unveiled but Violence Continues (27 Apr)

Myanmar’s Ministry of Planning, Finance and Industry (MoPFI) plans to inject US$2-3 billion (2.8-4.2 trillion kyat) to mitigate the economic fallout of the pandemic. This COVID-19 Economic Relief Plan (CERP) will increase spending to support small businesses with a focus on the hotel and tourism sectors. The plan also includes loan guarantees and tax waivers to support the private sector. Authorities have also provided electricity tariff exemptions and in-kind food transfers to ease the impact on households.

The Central Bank of Myanmar (CBM) announced it would cut interest rates by another 1.5 percent. This is the third time it has cut rates since the COVID-19 crisis, with a 0.5 percent cut on 12 March, followed by a 1 percent cut on 24 March. Interest rates now stand at 7 percent. Last week, the World Bank also announced loans worth US$50 million to Myanmar to help support medical systems in the country.

As of 29 April, Myanmar’s health ministry reported 150 confirmed COVID-19 cases. Less than 7000 people have been tested so far. Lockdown measures continue in various townships that requires all residents to stay at home. Only public servants and factory workers are allowed to go to work and only one person in each household can go out to buy necessities. Temporary entry restrictions for outside visitors have been extended until 15 May. It is another extension after international flight arrivals had been suspended from 30 March.

Myanmar has to simultaneously contend with other challenges during this COVID-19 crisis. Fighting continues and has led to the death of a driver for the World Health Organization (WHO). The WHO vehicle was transporting COVID-19 virus swabs and was caught in the crossfire between the Tatmadaw and the Arakan Army in Rakhine’s Minbya Township. Calls for a ceasefire during this pandemic have been ignored with both sides placing blame on the other. Furthermore, the Rohingya humanitarian crisis continues with more refugees trying to reach Malaysia by boat.

Sources: The Irrawaddy, Myanmar Times, Mizzima, Frontier Myanmar

Thailand: State of Emergency Extended and CPTPP Debate Shelved (27 Apr – Ongoing)

The Centre for COVID-19 Situation Administration (CCSA) announced on 27 April that it would extend the enforcement of Thailand’s state of emergency until the end of May. The 10pm to 4am curfew, prohibition on mass gatherings, restrictions on travel between provinces and into Thailand, and ban on all incoming flights are expected to remain. However, as the number of new cases had fallen to single digits by the time of the announcement, the CSSA also said it would relax some of the restrictions, including allowing businesses such as shopping malls and hair salons to reopen. The businesses would have to adhere to new health guidelines, including the compulsory wearing of facemasks in stores. Provincial governors would also have significant freedom in determining the details behind the reopening of businesses.

Sources: Bangkok Post, The Thaiger

Reports emerged from Thailand that the cabinet would not consider whether to seek membership in the Comprehensive and Progressive Trans-Pacific Partnership (CPTPP) trade agreement, though a meeting on the topic had been scheduled for 28 April. The cabinet was expected to make a decision on the topic by April or May based on recommendations by the Commerce Ministry. Auramon Supthaweethum, Director General of the Department of Trade Negotiations, had also said on 27 April that a study by the ministry found that joining the CPTPP could boost Thailand’s GDP by 0.12%, while remaining outside it could cause GDP to contract by 0.25%. However, opposition parties such as the Move Forward Party, business groups and even current ministers opposed CPTPP membership on the grounds that it would hurt certain sectors of the economy. Deputy Prime Minister and Commerce Minister Jurin Laksanavisit withdrew the proposal to join the CPTPP in response. It is unclear whether the study will be presented to the cabinet at a later date, and the next ministerial meeting for CPTPP members is scheduled for August 2020.

Sources: Bangkok Post, Bangkok Post, Reuters

Vietnam: Lockdown Eased, Schools to Reopen (23 Apr – Ongoing)

On 23 April, Vietnam became the first Southeast Asian country to ease on COVID-19 restrictions, and marked seven straight days without reporting new infections. The country’s Prime Minister Nguyen Xuan Phuc has said Vietnam has managed to contain Covid-19 but also warned that this is no time to relax. Businesses in Vietnam have begun to reopen but “non-essential” services like bars, beauty clinics and entertainment facilities are to remain closed until further notice. “Unnecessary” events, especially those that require large gatherings will still remain on hold. The PM announced that Vietnam will fully resume rice exports on 1 May.

Schools in Ho Chi Minh City are scheduled to reopen on Monday, 4 May, after a three-and-a-half-month break. Classes will resume in a staggered manner with those having to take their exams going back to school first. Kindergarten classes will join later between 18 May and 1 June. Masks will be provided to the students.

Domestic flights have gradually resumed since 16 April with additional routes to be gradually added. Meanwhile the national carrier, Vietnam Airlines, is likely to operate two direct flights to the US.

Vietnam has also positioned itself to be a global provider of essential medical equipment. Test kits produced by the Vietnam Military Medical University and Viet A Corporation passed EU standards on 21 April. Vietnam’s largest conglomerate Vingroup has also completed the design of two ventilator models that will likely hit the market on 15 May.

Sources: VNExpress, Bloomberg, Reuters, Vietnam Insider