Indonesia

Indonesia Aims to Relocate Capital Out of Jakarta Over 5-10 Years (30 Apr)

The cabinet of President Joko Widodo “Jokowi” announced that it intends to begin moving the government out of Jakarta on 30 April, Tuesday. The shift, motivated by increasing traffic congestion in Jakarta and the rising risk of natural disasters on state functions, is expected to take place over 5-10 years. The National Development Ministry under Minister Bambang Brodjonegoro is currently working on a feasibility study for the relocation plans, which could cost around US$33 billion for 1.5 million people. Reports have noted that Jokowi wants the new capital to be outside Java to promote the development of Indonesia’s outlying regions, and is rumoured to favour Kalimantan.

Sources: Nikkei Asian Review, Jakarta Globe, Jakarta Post

Split Reactions Among Coalition Allies to Prabowo’s Allegations of Fraud (2-6 May)

Some of Prabowo Subianto’s coalition allies have stood by his claims of a rigged election. National Mandate Party (PAN) honorary council chairman Amien Rais has criticised the election as “systemically, massively and brutally” rigged, and urged for “people power” to fight against it. Islamic Defender Front Leader Rizieq Shihab has also called for mass mobilisation against a Jokowi victory, and urged the election commission to disqualify the incumbent President for election rigging.

However, the Democratic Party has signalled its reluctance to support Prabowo’s allegations of voter fraud. The party has said that it will wait for the announcement of results on 22 May, and adhere to the 1945 constitution and the law. Jokowi also held a one-on-one meeting with party executive Agus Harimurti Yudhoyono on 2 May. Prabowo’s vice presidential candidate, Sandiaga Uno, also said that he is open to working with Jokowi, and would put the national interest first no matter the outcome.

Sources: Tempo.Co, Jakarta Globe, Bloomberg

Prabowo Insists on Victory, Calls for “Data Irregularities” to be Corrected (6 May)

Presidential Candidate Prabowo Subianto has continued to repeat his stance that he won the 17 April election with 62% of the vote, and revealed a long list of charges against election authorities and the incumbent President Jokowi that allegedly show a “blatant and flagrant violation of basic norms of democracy”. These include claims of data entry errors, 6.7 million voters not getting an invitation to vote and the use of state-owned enterprises to finance Jokowi’s campaign. While Prabowo did not confirm whether he would be launching a legal challenge on the results, as he did in 2014, he said that his team was “pessimistic” that justice would be served. He also said that, in comparison to 2014, the “violations are too much” for him to accept the election results.

Sources: The Straits Times, The Jakarta Post

Indonesian Government Threatens Action Against Attempts to Delegitimise Institutions (6 May)

The Indonesian government is threatening legal actions to stop parties attempting to delegitimise the results of the official election count by the elections commission. Coordinating Minister for Politics, Law and Security Wiranto noted in particular that an overseas individual (likely Rizieq Shihab) was provoking people to take unconstitutional actions, and that he has asked the national police to take firm action against parties such as this. However, his statement that the government can shut down “any media that helps people violate the law” resulted in criticism from other political leaders, and prompted Wiranto to clarify that only errant social media accounts would be targeted.

Sources: Jakarta Globe, Tempo.co, Tempo.co

Indonesia’s GDP Grows Slower Than Expected in Q1 2019 (6 May)

Official data showed that Indonesia’s economy grew at 5.07% in the first quarter of 2019, slower than the rate of 5.18% predicted by analysts. The slowdown comes amid a slide in exports from the country if more than 2% year on year, as well as weaker investment. Private consumption expenditures, which account for more than half of Indonesia’s gross domestic product (GDP), also slowed.

Sources: Financial Times, Nikkei Asian Review

Jokowi Pledges to Go All Out to Boost Economic Reform in Second Term (9 May)

Indonesian President Jokowi pledged on Thursday, 9 May, to embark on government reforms and cut investment-hampering red tape. In particular, he expressed a desire to axe government agencies that do not contribute to growth, and unveiled the “Vision Indonesia 2045” roadmap which plans for Indonesia to become the world’s fifth biggest economy. Industry Minister Airlangga Hartarto also said that Jokowi aimed to increase the contribution of the manufacturing sector from 20% to 25% of the nation’s economy by 2025.

Sources: Reuters, Business Times

Malaysia

One Year Later: Economy and Inflation the Biggest Concerns, but Voters Willing to Give More Time (26 Apr)

Economic satisfaction with Pakatan Harapan (PH) fell from 56% in May 2018 to 40% in March this year, a survey by Merdeka Centre found. The economy was at the top of voter concerns, with 63% of respondents choosing it as the “number one problem” facing Malaysia. The top three issues that respondents identified were inflation (54%)*, corruption (23%) and the preservation of Malay rights (23%). However, 67% of respondents said that PH needed more time to address these concerns.

Sources: Malaysiakini, Nikkei Asian Review

*Malaysia’s inflation rate, as measured by the consumer price index, rose 0.2% year-on-year in March 2019. However, the cost of living in Malaysia is still seen as high despite the removal of the good and services tax.

Sources: The Star, The Edge Markets

Dr Mahathir Unfazed by Lower Approval Rating, Denies Reshuffle Rumours (30 Apr, 6 May)

Prime Minister Dr Mahathir Mohamad said that PH still has years to address public dissatisfaction, in response to a Merdeka Centre poll that the coalition’s approval rating dropped from 67% in August 2018 to 39% in March 2019. His own approval rating dropped from 71% to 46% over the same period. Dr Mahathir also denied that he would restructure his cabinet, despite giving them a score of “five out of 10”. While they might be inexperienced, he said that they are “learning very fast”.

Sources: Malay Mail, The Star

Mahathir v. Royals: New Appointments and an Increasing War of Words (30 Apr – 6 May)

Malaysia appointed Federal Court Judge Tengku Maimum Tuan Mat as its first female chief justice on Tuesday, 30 April, soothing concerns about a deadlock between Dr Mahathir’s government and the country’s constitutional monarchs over appointments of key office holders. The former chief justice, Richard Malanjum, had retired on 12 April after reaching the compulsory retirement age of 66. A day later, Dr Mahathir also confirmed that Abdul Hamid Bador had been appointed as the new Inspector General of Police (IGP). Hamid, known for being forced out of his position in the Police Special Branch during the 1Malaysia Development Berhad (1MDB) scandal, told Malaysiakini that he hoped to reform the Independent Police Complaints and Misconduct Commission (IPCMC) to serve both police personnel and civilians.

Sources: South China Morning Post, Malaysiakini

Meanwhile, relations remain tense between Dr Mahathir and the royalty, particularly in Johor. It was revealed that a plot of federal land earmarked for the Johor Baru-Singapore Rapid Transit System had been acquired by Johor ruler Sultan Ibrahim Sultan Iskandar under the previous Barisan Nasional (BN) government, prompting the ruler to announce that he is willing to hand over the land to the government without any cost. On 6 May, the fierce exchanges between Dr Mahathir and crown prince Tunku Ismail Sultan Ibrahim on the powers of the federal government and the royal family reached a new level with Dr Mahathir calling the crown prince “a little boy” and “stupid… When you don’t know anything, don’t talk”. His special media advisor A. Kadir jasin also called upon the authorities to launch a tax probe into Mados Sdn Bhd, a company alleged to have royal ties.

Sources: Channel NewsAsia, The Straits Times, Malay Mail

Anwar, DAP Back Dr Mahathir in Feud with Royals (4 May, 7 May)

Parti Keadilan Rakyat (PKR) President Anwar Ibrahim said that there is nothing personal in the feud between Dr Mahathir and the Johor crown prince. Instead, he noted that Dr Mahathir was intending to ensure that the spirit of the federal constitution is preserved, and said that “I think we are with him on that”. A few days prior to his statement, Finance Minister Lim Guan Eng also pledged the support of the Democratic Action Party (DAP) to Dr Mahathir on resolving problems with the Johor royal family.

Sources: The Star, Free Malaysia Today

Malaysia Cuts Key Rate for the First Time Since July 2016 (7 May)

Malaysia’s central bank lowered its overnight policy rate by 25 basis points to 3% on Tuesday, 7 May. This is the first time the rate has been lowered since July 2016. The bank said the move was prompted by the need to preserve the degree of monetary accommodativeness, and economists suggest that more easing could follow in 2019 due to slower inflation rates and economic uncertainty.

Sources: Nikkei Asian Review

Malaysia Recovers 1MDB Money from US, Bringing Total Since May 2018 to US$322 million (8 May)

Attorney General Tommy Thomas said that with the US recently returning US$57 million from asset seizures related to 1MDB by the US Department of Justice (DOJ), Malaysia has recovered US$322 million worth of 1MDB assets since May 2018. The US sum was forfeited from Red Granite Pictures, the US-based film production company linked to former Prime Minister Najib Razak and his stepson Riza Aziz. The DOJ announced that out of the US$4.5 billion allegedly siphoned from 1MDB, it was seeking to forfeit US$1.7 billion through civil forfeiture complaints. It is currently in the process of remitting US$139 million from the sale of a Manhattan property linked to fugitive financier Jho Low.

Sources: The Star, Channel NewsAsia

Vivian Balakrishnan: Ties with Malaysia More Stable Now, But Much Work Still Ahead (8 May)

Relations with Malaysia are on a more “stable footing” but much work remains to be done, Singapore Foreign Minister Vivian Balakrishnan said in Parliament on Wednesday, 8 May. Cooperation is ongoing on a range of issues, from maritime boundaries to arrangements for air traffic services. Dr Balakrishnan concluded by saying that Singapore and Malaysia will always be close neighbours and “issues will inevitably crop up from time to time”. He stressed that it is crucial to “keep the channels of communication open” while discussing issues in a calm and constructive way, honour international agreements and find win-win solutions in accordance with international law.

Sources: The Straits Times

Myanmar

ARSA contests report alleging criminal activities in refugee camps (30 April)

The Arakan Rohingya Salvation Army (ARSA) has contested an International Crisis Group report asserting that militants and gangs aligned with the group control Rohingya camps in Bangladesh, and commit violence against refugees. The report in question alleges instances of intimidation, kidnapping and violence, including the deployment of deadly force in the high-profile killing of a camp leader who was alleged to be on good terms with the Bangladeshi army. ARSA has denied all allegations and invited international organisations to investigate.

Sources: Irrawaddy, International Crisis Group

China to provide 1bn Yuan development grant, among other agreements signed at 2^nd BRF (30 April)

China has agreed to provide a 1bn yuan (US$148m) grant to Myanmar for the specific purpose of fostering socioeconomic development projects. This grant is a part of an over-arching economic and technical cooperation agreement – one of three documents signed at the 2^nd Belt and Road Forum. Also signed at the forum was an MOU detailing cooperation on the CMEC from 2019 to 2030, which was signed by Myanmar’s Ministry of Planning and Finance and China’s National Development and Reform Commission. Myanmar’s Ministry of Investment and Foreign Economic Relations also signed an MOU outlining a five-year collaboration on trade and economic development with China’s Ministry of Commerce. It was also reported that the outstanding issue of the Myitsone Dam was not addressed during the forum.

Sources: Irrawaddy, Irrawaddy, Irrawaddy

Tatmadaw extends ceasefire in Kachin and Shan until June 30 (1 May)

Myanmar’s military has extended its unilateral ceasefire in Kachin and Shan states to June 30. This development comes in response to a request by the Northern Alliance of Ethnic Armed Organisations (EAOs) at peace talks held at Muse in Shan state. Tatmadaw representative Brigadier-General Zaw Min Tun noted that the extended window would be used to pursue the option of having the participating EAOs sign the Nationwide Ceasefire Agreement. While the Arakan Army is part of the Northern Alliance, they were not listed as one of the parties requesting the ceasefire, which has not been extended to Rakhine State.

Sources: Frontier Myanmar, Irrawaddy

Reuters journalists Wa Lone and Kyaw Soe Oo freed (7 May)

Reuters journalists Wa Lone and Kyaw Soe Oo were granted a presidential amnesty by President U Win Myint after being incarcerated for 511 days. The two men had been sentenced to seven years in prison under the Official Secrets Act for investigating the killing of 10 Rohingya in Rakhine state. Their case became a cause célèbre for the international community and was taken to be symbolic of the Myanmar government’s repressive attitudes towards press freedom. This decision comes after a failed final appeal by the journalist’s lawyers to Myanmar’s supreme court in April. Wa Lone and Kyaw Soe Oo were awarded the Pulitzer prize earlier in the month.

Sources: Irrawaddy, Frontier Myanmar, Reuters

Government considers legal action against firebrand monk U Wirathu (8 May)

Myanmar’s Ministry of Religious Affairs and Culture has indicated that it is reviewing recordings of ultra-nationalist monk U Wirathu’s recent speeches with the aim of determining if he has violated any laws. Minister for Religious Affairs and Culture Thura U Aung Ko was later quoted as saying that the monk would face prosecution after he made comments personally attacking State Counsellor Aung San Suu Kyi, and criticising her government. U Wirathu had earlier this week also made a speech in which he called for Military parliamentarians to be ‘worshipped’, while condemning efforts at constitutional change. He was barred from delivering a speech in Phuket by Thai authorities, earlier in the month.

Sources: Irrawaddy, Irrawaddy, Irrawaddy

Adani Myanmar to develop new International Port Terminal in Yangon (9 May)

The Myanmar subsidiary of Indian conglomerate Adani has been granted permission by the Myanmar Investment Commission to develop and operate the Ahlone International Port Terminal (AIPT) 2 in south-western Yangon. The project will be completed across two phases, occupying a total area of 54 acres. Construction is due to begin on the first phase in September 2019 and take a total of 12 months. When complete, the first phase of the AIPT 2 will be able to handle a maximum load of 150,000 Twenty-foot Equivalent Units (TEUs) of container cargo. A second phase, which is projected to be completed five to six months after the first, will expand the port’s capacity to 800,000 TEUs.

Sources: Irrawaddy, Port Technology

Construction on Yangon Elevated Expressway to begin in July 2020 (9 May)

Myanmar’s Ministry of Construction announced that the first phase of the proposed Yangon Elevated Expressway project is due to begin construction in July 2020. The project is being developed using a Public-Private Partnership model. Potential investors were invited to submit proposals by June 2019 at a pre-bid conference held on the 2^nd of May. The winning bidders are scheduled to be announced in July or August 2019.

Source: Myanmar Times

Thailand

Export growth projections for Thailand fall among business operators (3 May)

The Joint Standing Committee on Commerce, Industry and Banking (JSCCIB) has indicated that it may cut its export growth forecast for Thailand below 3%, as concerns grow regarding the impact of the US-China trade war, and the general slowdown in the global economy. This would be a second cut to projections this year. Its current projection for export growth in 2019 is 3-5% growth, down from a previous projection of 5-7%. April also saw JSSCCIB cut its projection for GDP growth to 3.7-4%, from 4-4.3%. It was also noted during the Asian Development Bank’s annual meeting the previous week that the slowing global economy would continue to affect Thailand’s rate of GDP growth from 2019 to 2020, with a fall from 3.9% in 2019 to 3.7% in 2020 being forecasted.

Sources: Bangkok Post, Bangkok Post

Thailand crowns its new King (4-6 May)

Thailand’s King Maha Vajiralongkorn was officially crowned in a grand, three-day long ceremony during which the king was met by massive crowds as he proceeded through the city on a royal palanquin. Though newly-crowned, Thailand has backdated the beginning of King Vajiralongkorn’s rule to the date of his father’s death on 13 October 2016. In the time since his accession to the throne, the king has worked to consolidate power in the hands of the monarchy. He has notably asserted much greater control over the royal wealth, which is estimated at US$30bn in value. Prior to his coronation, the king also deemed the potential candidacy of his sister in upcoming elections inappropriate, leading to the dissolution of the Thai Raksa Chart party which had nominated her.

Sources: Bangkok Post, Reuters

Bank of Thailand keeps key interest rate unchanged at 1.75% (8 May)

The Bank of Thailand left one-day repurchase rates unchanged at 1.75%, after a recent meeting by its monetary-policy committee. This is just one point above a record low, and anticipates subdued economic growth along with an uncertain global trade environment. This is also in keeping with trends around the region, which see many Central Banks in Asia and Oceania cutting interest rates in an attempt to spur economic growth.

Sources: Bangkok Post, Wall Street Journal

Election Commission endorses 149 party-list MPs (9 May)

Thailand’s Election Commission has endorsed a list of 149 party-list MPs under a calculation method that allocates seats to 11 small political parties. This comes after the country’s Constitutional Court ruled that the method did not violate the constitution, thus protecting the Election Commission from legal action. This development heavily compromises prospects for the popular Pheu Thai-led alliance to form a government as it reduces the number of seats they control in the 500-seat house of representatives to 245. The number of seats the junta-backed Palang Pracharath Party (PPRP) can contrastingly bring to bear if it rallies the remaining small parties to its side is 253. 2 more seats are due to be contested in a by-election. 10 smaller parties which gained seats as a result of the Election Commission’s decision have already declared their intentions to align themselves with PPRP.

Sources: Bangkok Post, Bangkok Post, Bangkok Post, The Nation

EEC office to speed up stalled megaprojects (10 May)

Thailand’s Eastern Economic Corridor (EEC) office has announced that it will be speeding development on two megaprojects that previously stalled due to negotiations with winning bidders. These projects are the Map Ta Phut port in Rayong, and the High-Speed Rail Linked 3 Airport project, which connects Don Mueang Airport in Bangkok with Suvarnabhumi Airport in Samut Prakan, and U-Tapao Airport in Rayong. A formal agreement on the latter project is due in mid-May. It will notably the first collaborative Sino-Japanese investment project in a third country. The EEC office’s secretary general indicated that development on the two projects will begin in the latter half of 2019. China and Japan have also indicated interest in jointly developing an EEC smart city megaproject in Chacheongsao province, east of Bangkok.

Sources: Bangkok Post, Bangkok Post, Bangkok Post

77bn baht left over in state budget from previous fiscal year after economic stimulus (10 May)

It is reported that 77bn baht (US$2.44bn) is left over in Thailand’s national coffers for the incoming government to spend, until 30 September 2019. It was also noted that the outgoing administration had launched a 13.2bn baht (US$418.4m) economic stimulus package aimed at addressing Thailand’s stalling economic growth. The package involves public welfare benefits for low-income earners, plus tax measures worth 8.62bn baht (US$273.2m).

Sources: Bangkok Post