Indonesia

Indonesia’s 2019 Budget Deficit Expected to Exceed Earlier Estimates (18 Nov)

Finance Minister Sri Mulyani Indrawati told reporters that the 2019 budget deficit is now expected to reach up to 2.2% of Indonesia’s gross domestic product (GDP), up from an initial target of 1.84%. This revision comes on the back of the government missing revenue targets, with income-tax revenue from the oil and gas sector sliding 9.3% year-on-year. In fact, Indonesia’s budget deficit by 31 October had already reached 1.8% of GDP. Indonesia’s economic prospects have suffered amid the global slowdown, with the government reducing its full-year growth forecast from 5.3% to 5.1%.

 Sources: Bloomberg, Antara News

Indonesia Surprises with Trade Surplus in October as Exports and Imports Shrink (15 Nov)

Statistics Indonesia (BPS) announced on Friday, 15 November, that Indonesia posted a surprise trade surplus of US$161.3 million in October. Overall, Indonesia booked a US$1.78 billion trade deficit between January and October 2019, lower than the US$5.57 billion deficit recorded over the same period in 2018. However, the lower deficit was due to drops in both Indonesia’s exports and imports, with exports and imports contracting 6.13% and 16.39% year-on-year in October 2019. Economists pointed out that the lower import figures indicated weaker domestic economic activity, which coincides with findings that Indonesia’s economic growth rate hit its lowest level in more than two years in Q3 2019.

 Sources: The Business Times, The Jakarta Post

Jokowi Scheduled to secure a US$1 billion Investment Deal from Hyundai (13 Nov)

Coordinating Minister for Maritime Affairs and Investment Luhut Pandjaitan said that President Joko Widodo “Jokowi” will secure a US$1 billion investment deal from Hyundai on 25 November. While Hyundai Mobil Indonesia has been silent about the reports, Minister Luhut claimed that the investment is to be for Indonesia’s electric car industry. Indonesia and South Korea are also scheduled to sign a free trade agreement later this month at the 30^th ASEAN-Korea Commemorative Summit in Busan. The FTA will give Indonesia better market access to fisheries and agriculture while offering South Korea better market access to industrial raw materials.

 Sources: Tempo.co, Tempo.co, The Investor

Ahok Offered Executive Post at Unnamed SOE (13 Nov – Ongoing)

Former Jakarta Governor Basuki Tjahaja Purnama “Ahok” reportedly received an offer from State-Owned Enterprises (SOE) Minister Erick Thohir to manage an SOE, rumoured to be oil and gas corporation PT Pertamina. Ahok, who served a one-year and eight-month jail sentence for blasphemy against Islam before being released in January 2019, has kept a low profile and avoided politics. Now, he only not has Erick’s endorsement to run an SOE, but President Jokowi’s as well. Some have also noted that his no-nonsense approach to management might help to improve SOEs. Ahok said that he will announce his decision on the offer in December.

 Sources: Jakarta Globe, Jakarta Globe, The Jakarta Post Premium

Suicide Bombing in Medan Leads to Intensified Anti-Terror Operations (13 Nov)

At least six people were injured when a suicide bomber detonated his vest at the Medan City police station on Wednesday, 13 November. The bomber was linked with the Jama’ah Anshorut Daula (JAD), a local affiliate of the Islamic State. The attack came as Indonesia’s counterterrorist forces, known as Densus 88, were pursuing Islamic militants linked to the stabbing of Security Minister Wiranto in October. Security was raised in at least 19 airports across the country as investigations continued. On Monday alone, Indonesian police arrested 43 suspected militants, and shot dead two bomb-makers who attempted to attack them.

 Sources: Channel NewsAsia, The Jakarta Post, SCMP, DW

Malaysia

Landslide Defeat for PH as MCA Candidate Wins Tanjung Piai By-Election (16 Nov)

 The Malaysian Chinese Association’s (MCA) Wee Jeck Seng won the six-cornered by-election in Tanjung Piai, Johor, with over 60% of the vote. Wee, who was the MP for Tanjung Piai from 2008-2018, secured over 15,000 more votes than his closest competitor, Parti Pribumi Bersatu Malaysia’s (PPBM) Karmaine Sardini. While low turnouts at Pakatan Harapan (PH) election rallies fed widespread observations that the by-election would be a difficult contest, the scale of the defeat was unprecedented for PH. In the aftermath, observers noted that the results were a clear sign that voters have turned against the PH government for its unfulfilled promises and controversial policies.

 Sources: Malaysiakini, Malay Mail, The Straits Times, Malay Mail

Najib Ordered to Enter Defence on SRC Case as Third 1MDB Trial Commences (11 Nov – Ongoing)

 Former Prime Minister Najib Razak was ordered to enter his defence for all seven charges related to his US$10.1 million SRC International trial on 11 November, Monday. The charges for this case, the first of three trials surrounding the 1Malaysia Development Berhad (1MDB) scandal, include three counts of criminal breach of trust, one count of abuse of power and three counts of money laundering. The defence stage of the trial is expected to proceed between 3 and 19 December.

Sources: Malay Mail, The Business Times

Overall, Najib faces a total of 42 charges across these three trials. The second trial, involving 25 charges over US$700 million allegedly originating from 1MDB’s coffers that was found in his personal bank accounts, will resume on 6 January. Najib also went on trial for the third case on Monday, 18 November, where he stands accused of altering a 2016 1MDB audit report. If found guilty, he could be punished with up to 20 years in prison and a fine. Najib denies any wrongdoing, and his lawyers claim that he was misled by rogue bankers led by financier Jho Low.

Sources: Free Malaysia Today, SCMP, Al Jazeera

Azmin: Speculation Rages Over Youth Congress and Dinner Meeting (13 Nov – Ongoing)

 Scrutiny over Economic Affairs Minister Azmin Ali’s actions have surfaced again in the media after reports of tensions at a Parti Keadilan Rakyat (PKR) Youth Congress. Azmin has been ostensibly locked in an intra-party contest with supporters of PKR President Anwar Ibrahim. As a result, when his invitation to officiate the PKR Youth Wing’s Congress on 6 December was suddenly withdrawn by PKR Secretary-General Saifuddin Nasution and given to Deputy Prime Minister Wan Azizah Wan Ismail, tempers flared.

On 13 November, a statement signed by 21 of 25 PKR Youth central leaders condemned the Secretary-General for triggering a “leadership crisis”, and Azmin blasted the PKR Youth Chief as a “weak person”. PKR leaders in Sarawak even announced that their annual state party convention on 23 November was cancelled in support of Azmin, though other state leaders such as the Director of State Conventions said that the meeting would proceed. Anwar himself weighed in on the issue, saying that the invitation would not be restored and dismissing Azmin’s claims of “hidden hands” working against him.

Sources: The Star, The Straits Times, The Straits Times, New Straits Times Online

Separately, it was reported that a group of Barisan Nasional (BN) MPs met with Azmin at his house on Monday night, 18 November. The context led observers to speculate that Azmin was attempting to shore up support for Prime Minister Dr Mahathir Mohamad. In the wake of the by-election defeat in Tanjung Piai, commentators had demanded that Dr Mahathir hand over power to Anwar, with Azmin being one of the few voices defending the premier. Furthermore, the presence of Former United Malays National Organisation (UMNO) Vice President Hisamuddin Hussein, who has been linked to talk of moves to form a new government, was seen as evidence that political manoeuvring was occurring behind the scenes.

Anwar has called upon Azmin to explain the purpose of the meeting. In the meantime, the meeting’s attendees maintain that it was just a “dinner meeting”, though Deputy Transport Minister and PKR central leadership council member Kamarudin Jaffar offered the cryptic remark that they had “discussed the nation’s future”.

Sources: Free Malaysia Today, Malaysiakini, Malay Mail, The Star, Malay Mail

1962 Agreement Resurfaces as Johor Water Issues Discussed in Parliament (12 Nov)

 Speaking in the Malaysian Parliament, Water, Land and Natural Resources Minister Xavier Jayakumar said that the Malaysian government will prioritise the water need of Johor locals over those of “outsiders” in the event of a water crisis. The Minister said that Johor’s water reserve margin is lower than the nationally stipulated standard of 10%, though it also needs to reduce its reliance on treated water from Singapore. He also urged the Singaporean government to “be more open” towards Malaysia’s requests to review the price of raw water in the 1962 Water Agreement, and that the rate of three cents per 1,000 gallons of water is far cheaper than the rate between Pahang-Selangor (46 cents) and Johor-Melaka (50 cents). Johor’s Menter Besar Dr Sahruddin Jamal agreed that the current price of water sold to Singapore is too low, and said that the Johor state government welcomes any move to review the 1962 agreement.

Sources: Channel NewsAsia, The Edge Markets MY, New Straits Times Online

US Aviation Authority Downgrades Malaysia’s Airspace Safety Rating (12 Nov)

 The US Federal Aviation Administration downgraded Malaysia’s air safety rating from Category 1 to Category 2 on 12 November, after it found that the Civil Aviation Authority of Malaysia (CAAM) was unable to meet the safety standards of the International Civil Aviation Organisation (ICAO). Malaysia had previously reobtained Category 1 status in 2003, and though it is not the only Southeast Asian country to have been downgraded to Category 2 (Thailand received the same downgrade in 2015) air carriers from Malaysia now cannot start new services to the United States. Prime Minister Dr Mahathir and CAAM have asked for clarification regarding the findings that led to the downgrade, and Transport Minister Anthony Loke announced that Malaysia is putting together an eight-member team of local and foreign experts to help CAAM regain its earlier classification.

Sources: SCMP, Malaysiakini, Free Malaysia Today, New Straits Times Online

Myanmar

Proposal put forward to merge Ministry of Planning and Finance and Ministry of Industry (14 Nov)

 Myanmar’s President U Win Myint has put forward a proposal which will see the merging of the Ministries of Planning and Finance, and Ministry of Industry. Under the proposed course of action, the two ministries will be merged entirely to create a new Ministry of Planning, Finance and Industry. The incumbent Minister of Planning and Finance, U Soe Win, presently already holds the portfolio of Minister of Industry, and came to occupy the role after the previous Industry Minister U Khin Maung Cho was relieved from the role on account of performance problems in July. Economist Dr Min Ye Paing Hein was later appointed as deputy Minister of Industry to assist U Soe Win. The NLD entered power in 2016 by drastically reducing the number of ministers and ministries, in an effort to reduce government spending. However, four ministries and five ministers have subsequently been appointed since then.

Sources: Irrawaddy, Myanmar Times

NLD government to issue new round of foreign bank licenses (7 Nov)

The Central Bank of Myanmar (CBM) has announced that it will begin issuing a third round of foreign bank licenses in 2020. Licenses are divided into two categories – Branch or Subsidiary licenses.  Branch licenses allow operators to offer a range of wholesale banking services, while Subsidiary licenses permit both wholesale and – as of January 2021 – onshore retail banking services. Branch licenses will require minimum paid-in capital of US$75m while subsidiary licenses will require minimum paid-in capital of US$100m. Banks which had operated branches in Myanmar for three years as of January 2020 would also be allowed to convert their licenses to subsidiary licenses. The CBM did not specify a timeframe in 2020 when bidding was due to begin, but stated it would be sharing requests for Expressions of Interest with eligible banks in coming months. This will be the first round of foreign bank licenses issued under the NLD administration, and two previous rounds which took place under the USDP-led Thein Sein administration attracted 13 foreign banks in all.

Sources: Myanmar Times, Dealstreet Asia

Chin State Upper House lawmaker taken hostage by Arakan Army (4 Nov – Ongoing)

Upper House Member of Parliament for Chin State U Hwei Tin remains a captive of the Arakan Army (AA), after having been captured earlier in the month along with a number of Indian nationals, who have since been released. The incident marked both the first time a foreigner had been captured, and the first time a Member of Parliament had been captured as well. The NLD has since condemned the AA for actions it views as having damaged the peace process, and demanded U Hwei Tin’s release. However, the AA has rejected this appeal, as well as others which have come from representatives of Chin civil society, instead claiming that the detained lawmaker was a “Tatmadaw stooge” who had spread hate among ethnic groups. Myanmar’s Union Parliament has since formally condemned the kidnapping, and again demanded U Hwei Tin’s immediate release. This incident comes alongside several other high-profile incidents, in which civil servants and Tatmadaw troops have been taken captive. The Tatmadaw recently rejected an offer by the AA to trade prisoners from these other incidents for certain individuals detained and awaiting trial in Rakhine state.

Sources: Myanmar Times, Myanmar Times, Myanmar Times, Myanmar Times, Reuters

International genocide lawsuits filed in ICJ and Argentina (11 Nov)

The Gambia has filed a case at the International Court of Justice (ICJ) accusing Myanmar of having committed genocide against its Rohingya minority. Gambian Justice Minister Abubacarr Tambadou said that the lawsuit was lodged after The Gambia secured the support of the Organisation for Islamic Cooperation (OIC), which is comprised of 57 states with sizeable Muslim populations. The Gambia’s 46-page filing to the ICJ asserted that Myanmar’s actions were “genocidal in character”, and requested that provisional measures be undertaken to compel Myanmar to cease alleged ongoing atrocities. The move has been commended by human rights and Rohingya activists. The Gambia is receiving legal assistance from American law firm Foley Hoag. Alongside this, another international lawsuit has been filed in Argentina against top Myanmar officials, for the first time naming State Counsellor Aung San Suu Kyi alongside senior Tatmadaw officers, as being responsible for crimes against the Rohingya. Myanmar government spokesman U Zaw Htay has stated in response to this series of legal challenges that Myanmar’s image had been “severely damaged internationally”.

Sources: Irrawaddy, Channel NewsAsia, Guardian, Myanmar Times, Reuters

ICC approves investigation into Rohingya migration (15 Nov)

The International Criminal Court at The Hague approved a full investigation into Myanmar’s treatment of the Rohingya. It stated that it had “authorised the prosecutor to proceed with an investigation for the alleged crimes within the ICC’s jurisdiction”, including “systematic acts of violence” and the perpetration of crimes against humanity such as deportation. The ICC team, which is headed by ICC Prosecutor Fatou Bensouda, will not investigate the accusation of genocide, though it falls within its purview. While Myanmar is not a member of the ICC, judges at the body have stated that it has jurisdiction to examine crimes that partially took place in Bangladesh, which is party to the court. Human rights and Rohingya activists have welcomed the move, but Myanmar has since replied, noting that the investigation was “not in accordance with international law” and would not be allowed into the country – further reiterating the fact that it was not a member of the ICC.

Sources: Myanmar Times, Frontier Myanmar, Frontier Myanmar, Reuters

Thailand

Constitutional Court disqualifies FFP Leader (20 Nov)

Future Forward Party leader Thanathorn Juangroongruangkit has been disqualified from serving as a Member of Parliament after Thailand’s Constitutional Court declared him guilty of holding shares in a media company when he registered to run in the March elections. Article 98 of the Thai constitution states that owners or shareholders of media companies are forbidden from running in elections. The ruling furthermore means that Mr Thanathorn may face up to 10 years of jail time and a lengthy political ban. Mr Thanathorn was accused of holding the shares by Thailand’s Election Commission, and has since then insisted that all relevant shares were transferred to his mother prior to his registration. Mr Thanathorn had earlier taken legal action against the members of the Election Commission for allegedly expediting the escalation of his shareholding case to the Constitutional Court despite having failed to finish its investigations. Mr Thanathorn is also accused of contributing disproportionately to his party’s finances through several channels, including sizeable donations from his family and a 100m baht (US$3.3m) loan – both of which are presently being scrutinized.

Sources: Reuters, Thai PBS, Khaosod, Bangkok Post

Government agencies lower economic growth forecasts as GDP growth slows (14 Nov)

 Officials at Thailand’s Central Bank have stated they will be lowering their economic growth forecasts for 2019 and 2020, but note that there is still scope for action to support the economy with the monetary policy tools available. This is despite recent moves by the Central Bank to cut key interest rates to a record low. The Central Bank’s forecasts currently stand at 2.8 per cent and 3.3 per cent for 2019 and 2020 respectively, and will be readjusted downwards depending on data available closer to a planned monetary policy meeting in December. The National Economic and Social Development Council (NESDC), which is a government think tank, subsequently announced that GDP had grown by only 0.1 per cent in Q3 2019, and cut its overall 2019 GDP forecast to 2.6 per cent from earlier projections of 2.7 – 3.2 percent. These slowdowns in GDP growth are attributed to falling export volumes and delays in investment caused by the extended struggle to establish the new government. Observers have noted that the Central Bank is unlikely to implement further rate cuts in 2020.

Sources: Reuters, Bangkok Post, Bangkok Post, Bangkok Post

Cabinet puts forward nominations for constitutional amendment committee (19 Nov)

After an extended discussion on the makeup of a proposed committee to vet constitutional amendments, Thailand’s cabinet has put forward six experts from outside of the government. The cabinet is allowed a quota of 12 seats on the 49-member panel, which will also include 18 coalition MPs and 19 opposition representatives, with allocations being based on the composition of parliament. The cabinet’s further six nominees are to be nominated by the government whip, with Cabinet officials stating that they are also to be from outside the government. MPs from both coalition parties and the opposition have questioned the need for a cabinet quota in the first place, with many vehemently rejecting the notion of allocating seats to incumbent senators, who are viewed as having a vested interest in opposing constitutional amendment. PM Prayut has stated that he does not oppose constitutional amendments as they are a parliamentary matter, but insists that the issues discussed must be clearly explained and rationalised to the public.

Sources: Bangkok Post, Bangkok Post, Bangkok Post

Thailand and US issue join vision statement on defence (18 Nov)

 PM Prayut Chan-o-cha and US Defence Secretary Mark Esper signed a joint vision statement on defence, affirming the importance of the US-Thailand defence treaty alliance, and emphasizing the importance of sustained security cooperation and capacity building. This took place in the immediate run-up to the ASEAN Defence Ministers’ Meeting in Bangkok. The issuing of the joint vision statement represents a further warming of ties between Thailand and the US, after tensions emerged in the wake of Thailand’s May 2014 coup. New issues mentioned in the statement include the US’s Indo-Pacific concept, the rules-based international order, ASEAN centrality and sustainable security. During this period, Thailand also signed Memorandums of Understanding (MOUs) on defence cooperation with China and Japan. Both MOUs emphasized the need for continued coordination, and capacity building exercises such as visits, intelligence sharing and joint exercises.

Sources: Bangkok Post, Thaiger, Diplomat

15 killed in separatist attack in Southern Thailand (6 Nov – Ongoing)

 Thailand suffered its worst attack in some years, when suspected separatist insurgents attacked a security checkpoint and killed at least 15 people. The attackers – which authorities assert to have numbered as many as 30 or 40 – later deployed explosives and scattered nails on the ground to delay pursuers during their escape. Fatalities included a police officer and a number of village defence volunteers. The attack took place in the province of Yala in Southern Thailand, where a long-running Muslim insurgency has killed nearly 7000 people since 2004 in an effort to gain independence from Buddhist-majority Thailand. Police representatives have since stated that there is evidence implicating Barisan Revolusi Nasional, the main insurgent group operating in Thailand’s south. Seven suspects have been detained and are currently being interrogated by Thai authorities at the notorious Inkayuth military camp in Pattani province. Security authorities were later given clearance to impose a curfew in Yala and surrounding provinces.

Sources: Reuters, Reuters, Bangkok Post, Bangkok Post