2025 is a significant year for Singapore: the nation-state would be celebrating SG60, marking 60 years of independence, and 80 years from the end of the Second World War. Against the changing landscape of the world, Singapore must remain open and inclusive while taking on an “omni-directional balanced constructive engagement with all powers.” This was the core message delivered by Singapore’s Minister for Foreign Affairs, Dr. Vivian Balakrishnan, at the Singapore Institute of International Affairs (SIIA)’s Year Opener 2025, moderated by Chairman of SIIA, Associate Prof Simon Tay.
How Far Singapore Has Come in 60 Years
Dr. Balakrishnan started by comparing Singapore’s GDP in 1965, standing at a mere US$1 billion, to Singapore’s current GDP of over US450 billion as of last year. He also highlighted that trade remains in Singapore’s lifeblood, citing Singapore’s trade to GDP ratio as a whopping 300%.
Reflecting on the endogenous and exogenous factors for Singapore’s success so far, Dr. Balakrishnan quoted founding father S. Rajaratnam’s concept of Singapore being a global, world-embracing city. Under Pax Americana, Singapore seized opportunities from the liberal world order. Singapore benefited from the Pax Americana liberal world order emphasizing freedom of choice, human rights, democracy, free trade and global supply chains, as well as the establishment of international norms and law.
In expounding on the various factors for Singapore’s success, Dr Balakrishnan noted Singapore’s strategic location in the Straits of Johor when the Suez Canal was opened in 1869. He cautioned that if the Arctic route opens, the Straits of Johor will no longer be the most efficient route, likely resulting in Singapore’s decline in port activity. Hence, he emphasized that Singapore must continue to maintain our competitive traits of being honest and reliable by upholding international law and the sanctity of contract. Moreover, Dr. Balakrishnan underlined the need to give credit to the hardworking and disciplined people of Singapore, the “key endogenous factors[s] to our success”.
The Present Global Order
Considering recent regional and global events, Dr. Balakrishnan characterised the current state of the world as one marked with “volatility”, “turmoil”, “headlines”, and “drama”. “The world,” according to Dr Balakrishnan, “is at an inflection point”.
Singapore was optimally positioned in a unipolar world with US as the leader – American presence in the Southeast Asian region prevented the domino theory and encouraged global trade and investments. Simultaneously, Deng Xiaoping’s Open Door Policy in 1978 opened up several novel economic opportunities from the large Chinese market, while the fall of the Soviet Union contributed to significant global trade liberalisation. However, things are different now: unipolarity is now being replaced by multipolarity, seen by rising great and middle powers such as China, the European Union, and from the Middle East, South America and Africa.
At the political level, Dr. Balakrishnan warned about the growing trend of the erosion of trust in international and domestic institutions. He noted that 2024 was deemed as the Year of Elections. Particularly, he cited that 25% of the past year’s elections resulted in a change of government, and even when incumbents maintained their seats, they witnessed a substantial erosion of support.
The prerequisites for Singapore’s past successes, are now severely eroded. Instead, several “-isms” have begun to plague the international climate, citing “nationalism” and “protectionism” as examples. He continued that there have been “geo-strategic earthquakes and tectonic shifts” in the world order, influenced by “deep anxieties about globalisation, multilateralism, and free trade” catalysed by US “challenging the very system that they envisioned” in the past.
Challenges and Future Direction
How, then, should Singapore position itself in this changing world? Dr Balakrishnan answers that Singapore has no choice but to remain open and inclusive, all the while balancing between realism and idealism. Singapore cannot be in a position where it can be bought or bullied; the nation-state should resolutely refuse to surrender to its fate as a small state and instead stand on its own two feet to defend itself. Singapore should also make common cause with partners and supporters, as unpredictability and uncertainty arises where each party aims for their own separate goals.
At the regional level, ASEAN should never be an arena for proxy wars. Instead, it should focus on further integration to ensure regional unity. Regardless of how the world shifts, ASEAN should continue to lower trade barriers, invest in infrastructure and connectivity, and strengthen economic integration. This way, ASEAN would have a realistic prospect to be in the top few economies in the world and have several decades ahead of it.
Conclusion
“Diplomacy is not a quiet game of chess, but rather billiards,” quipped Dr Balakrishnan. “Or more familiarly, mahjong,” he adds, in the spirit of Chinese New Year. Drawing references from game theory, he explained that diplomacy could be described as “infinitely repeated games”, where players try to work with others and gain their trust by being predictable and reliable. Similarly, on the global scale, Singapore should set a good example by continuing to play fair and honest, work collaboratively, and insist on fair and equitable treatment.
