The Singapore Institute of International Affairs (SIIA) and the Middle East Institute (MEI) jointly organised a dialogue titled “US–Israel–Iran: Implications for Geopolitics, International Law, and the Global Economy” on 27 March 2026.
The discussion was covered by the Chinese media platform Phoenix TV (ifeng.com) on 28 March 2026. Highlights from the report include:
“The trust levels have significantly deteriorated. The longer term objective was to cast doubt on the US security umbrella and commitment to the Gulf,” said Prof. Joseph Liow, Chairman of the MEI at the National University of Singapore. “But I think what is going to happen is that the Gulf States are going to actually double down on that security commitment.”
Prof. Liow noted that significant differences remain between the United States and Iran over the conditions for ending the war, suggesting the conflict may persist or escalate in the coming weeks. He added that Israel may also take the opportunity to strike targets long on its list.
He further highlighted that disruptions to energy supply and currency depreciation against the US dollar are delivering a double blow to regional economies and price stability.
Mr. Simon Tay, Chairman of SIIA, noted that Asia, as the world’s largest energy-importing region, is already feeling the impact, underscoring the need to strengthen resilience and accelerate the transition to renewable energy.
“The energy resilience, I mean, China has multiple sources, a big stockpile, and if Iran is going to allow anything through the Strait of Hormuz, maybe at $2 million a ship, it would be COSCO, so I think China will be able to squeeze out its supply,” said Mr. Tay. “But if the global economy goes down, of course China will take a hit.”
Ms. Angela Mancini, Partner and Head of Geopolitical Risk Analysis – APAC at Control Risks, a global risk management consultancy, observed that energy shortages and rising costs are already affecting corporate performance, with some firms reporting weaker profit outlooks and project cancellations, making energy a key risk variable.
If the war continues or escalates to include US ground forces, rising financial and human costs could also shape domestic political sentiment in the United States.
“We do see at this point, a structural increase in cost related to again, the lack of supply of energy primarily and a sea change of risk. They are asking for $200 billion for this war, that’s more that what we’ve spent in three years in Ukraine, which is $180 billion,” Ms Mancini said. “So that may be, as the American voters have seen gas go up by a dollar a gallon in the last month, that may be something that does tip up. We have to see.”
Read the full report: https://news.ifeng.com/c/8rrJGLiJ48o
