Indonesia

Absenteeism Fears Unfounded Amid Record Election Turnout (17 Apr)

Over 154 million registered voters were estimated to have voted in the election on 17 April, putting turnout at roughly 80%. This is much higher than the turnout of 70.6% in 2014. There had been fears in the lead up to the election that the percentage of voters that might abstain or golput (cast a blank vote) would exceed 30%, but these proved to be unfounded.

Sources: The Straits Times, South China Morning Post, Jakarta Globe

Quick Counts Put Jokowi in Lead (18 Apr)

According to unofficial results, Indonesian incumbent President Joko Widodo (“Jokowi”) is looking at a comfortable victory margin of 10% of the popular vote over his rival, Prabowo Subianto. At a news conference on 18 April (Thursday), Jokowi noted that 12 polling agencies had reported that he and Ma’ruf Amin had won roughly 55% of the vote, and that over 13 state leaders had conveyed their congratulations to him. However, Jokowi also called on his supporters to patiently wait for the official results, which are due on 22 May.

Sources: Channel NewsAsia, Jakarta Post

Prabowo Dismisses Pollsters, Declares Victory Based on Own Polls (18 Apr)

Dismissing the results of numerous polling agencies, Prabowo Subianto has claimed victory in the Indonesian elections based on internal polls. He asserts that a real count conducted by his team showed that he won 62% of the popular vote, and that polling agencies were attempting to “frame the data in such a way to show that we have lost”. The former general is expected to lodge a legal challenge if the official results point to a Jokowi victory, replaying events following the 2014 election.

Sources: The Guardian, Jakarta Globe

Prabowo and Jokowi Urged to Meet to Ease Tensions (18-23 Apr)

With Prabowo claiming victory despite quick count data favouring Jokowi, calls have been mounting for the two candidates to meet and ease tensions between their two camps. Incumbent Vice President Jusuf Kalla suggested that if the leaders are united, “the grassroots will also unite”. In response, Jokowi has entrusted Luhut Pandjaitan, one of his close aides, to arrange a possible meeting between him and Prabowo.

Sources: The Straits Time, Jakarta Post

Jokowi Calls for Increases to Capital Expenditure and Goods Procurement Cuts (23 Apr)

President Jokowi instructed his Cabinet ministers to increase capital expenditure and cut spending on goods procurement during a plenary Cabinet meeting on the 2020 state budget. This move is aimed at bolstering growth amid a slowing global economy, fallout from the US-China trade war and rising oil prices. The government is now targeting economic growth of between 5.3-5.6% for 2020, higher than preliminary projections of 5.5%.

In addition, SIIA Chairman Associate Professor Simon Tay wrote a Business Times commentary on the “faces” that Jokowi might show in his second term, and the business implications of his policy direction.

Sources: Bloomberg, Jakarta Post, Business Times

Malaysia

ECRL Deal Struck (15 Apr)

Following months of negotiations by Special Envoy Daim Zainuddin, Malaysia Rail Link (MRL) and China Communications Construction Company (CCCC) signed a supplementary agreement paving the way for the revival of the ECRL project on 12 April. The original project had been criticised for a lack of transparency and an allegedly overinflated price tag of between US$16-20 billion. The renegotiated project features the following:

• Estimated Completion Date: 2026.
• Cost: US$10.6 billion (down US$5.4 billion), US$16.4 million / km instead of US$23.6 million / km.
• Borrowing: Negotiations underway to lower the loan amount, which was 85% of the original project cost at 3.25%.
• Ownership: The Malaysian government will own 100% of all ECRL assets through MRL, and will be operated through a 50:50 joint venture between MRL and CCCC.
• Coverage: Length of tracks cut by 40 km to 648 km. It will no longer top at Bentong and Gombak, but stops in Terengganu were added. The train will also stop in Putrajaya, and be connected to a KLIA express station and an MRT2 link.
• Local Participation: Malaysian contractors will build 40% of the project (up from 30%)

Prime Minister Dr Mahathir Mohamad has said that the renegotiated deal would likely encourage China to buy more palm oil in exchange. He also announced that the CCCC had begun refunding US$747 million that Malaysia had paid in advance payments for the second phase of the project. Had Malaysia unilaterally decided to pull out of the deal, Dr Mahathir said that his government would have been liable to pay US$5.2 billion in cancellation fees.

Sources: Today, The Star, New Straits Times, The Edge Markets, South China Morning Post

Empty Chief Justice Seat Draws Concern (18 Apr)

Following the retirement of Former-Chief Justice Richard Malanjum on 12 April, the post for the head of Malaysia’s judiciary remains empty. Dr Mahathir had submitted the government’s candidates for the post, but has yet to receive the consent of the Yang di-pertuan Agong. He also stated he was perplexed that the entire Council of Rulers had to be involved in the decision. Further uncertainty is expected in the coming months as the President of the Court of Appeal, the Chief Judge of Malaya, the Chief Judge of Sabah and Sarawak and the Inspector General of the Police will need to be replaced upon reaching the retirement age of 66.

Sources: The Straits Times, Malay Mail

Bandar Malaysia Back on the Table (19 Apr)

Dr Mahathir has announced that the Bandar Malaysia project, which was called off in May 2017, will be revived. The 196-hectare project’s original developers, a consortium comprising Iskandar Waterfront Holdings Bhd and China Railway Engineering Corp Sdn Bhd will have 60 days to pay the deposit of US$299 million. Speaking at a press conference on 19 April, Dr Mahathir said that the project would help to boost urban development in Malaysia, a view shared by the World Bank Group, and foster long-term bilateral relations with China. He also said that tech giants such as Alibaba and Huawei have signalled their interest in setting up ICT centres in Bandar Malaysia.

Sources: The Star, The Edge Markets

World Bank Group Maintains Malaysia’s Growth Forecast at 4.7% (24 Apr)

The World Bank Group has maintained that Malaysia’s 2019 GDP growth forecast at 4.7%, driven by private consumption amid stable labour market conditions and income support measures. Whereas public investment is expected to remain subdued and foreign investment will be hindered by global economic uncertainty, the government’s near-term fiscal consolidation efforts are expected to reduce the fiscal deficit from 3.4% of GDP in 2019 to roughly 3% in 2020. The revival of the ECRL and Bandar Malaysia projects are also expected to have a positive impact on Malaysia’s medium-term economic growth. A key challenge, however, will be increasing Malaysia’s labour productivity.

Sources: The Star, Malay Mail

Johor Sultan Calls for Mature Discussions with Putrajaya Amid Growing Row (25 Apr)

Johor Sultan Ibrahim Iskandar called for Putrajaya and his state to have a mature discussion on their disagreements on Thursday, 25 April. The announcement, made via a Facebook post, comes amid tensions between the federal government and the Johor palace over jurisdictional issues. The Johor Sultan was one of the royals who vocally opposed Putrajaya’s ratification of the Rome Statute, and argued with Dr Mahathir over who had the final say in appointing the Johor Menteri Besar. Reports also emerged that Dr Mahathir was also upset by the changing of the state executive council following the appointment of the new Johor Menteri Besar, Dr Sahruddin Jamal, on 14 April. The reports claimed that Putrajaya had not issued instructions to change the cabinet.

The row is not over yet, with Dr Mahathir writing on his blog that the winning political party can reject the monarch’s candidate through a motion of no confidence in the assembly. Home Minister Muhyiddin Yassin called for the palace to admit its mistakes and stop meddling in state affairs. Malaysiakini also reported that Dr Mahathir had been so incensed by the Johor executive council reshuffle that he had considered stepping down, though he was convinced to stay.

Sources: The Straits Times, Free Malaysia Today, Channel NewsAsia, Malaysiakini

Myanmar

Few political prisoners among the 9,500 released during Thingyan new year celebrations (18 Apr)

Myanmar’s President Win Myint pardoned 9,551 prisoners on the 17^th of April as part of traditional presidential pardons doled out during the Thingyan new year season. Of these, only two were political prisoners and 16 were foreigners. In 2018, the President pardoned 8,541 prisoners, releasing 36 political prisoners and 54 foreigners. According to the Assistance Association for Political Prisoners (AAPP), there are still 44 political prisoners serving time and 90 detainees facing trial in Myanmar’s prisons.

Source: The Irrawaddy, Myanmar Times

Opposition to the Myitsone Dam grows as thousands protest downstream (22 Apr)

Between 8,000 and 10,000 local residents of Waimaw township in Kachin state marched in protest against hydropower projects on the Irrawaddy, and the Myitsone dam in particular, as pressure mounts on Myanmar to allow work to resume on the project. These protests follow increasingly high-profile demonstrations against the project, including by a public campaign collecting donations to cancel the project by compensating China for costs already incurred. The influential Archbishop of Yangon, Cardinal Charles Bo also called on local and national leaders to cancel the project. This series of protests come just as Aung San Suu Kyi flies to Beijing to attend the Second Belt and Road Forum.

Sources: Frontier Myanmar, Irrawaddy, Irrawaddy

Supreme Court dismisses appeal by Reuters reporters (23 Apr)

Myanmar’s Supreme Court has dismissed an appeal by Reuters reporters Wa Lone and Kyaw Soe Oo against their seven-year sentence for violating Myanmar’s Official Secrets Act. This follows successive failed appeals to lower courts, and has been criticised by observers as an attack on press freedom. Wa Lone and Kyaw Soe Oo were awarded the Pulitzer prize earlier this month, but were left off the list of prisoners traditionally pardoned at Myanmar’s Thingyan new year celebrations. State Counsellor Aung San Suu Kyi has repeatedly defended their sentence when queried on the topic, and refused to intervene at several points to secure their release.

Sources: Frontier Myanmar, New York Times, Myanmar Times, Channel NewsAsia

Tatmadaw to strengthen military ties with Russia (26 Apr)

The Tatmadaw’s Senior General Min Aung Hlaing announced to Russian media during a recent visit to Moscow that Myanmar would be relying more on Russian military hardware for its efforts to modernise and expand its capabilities. It was concurrently revealed that Russia has begun to assemble the 6 Sukhoi SU-30SM advanced fighter jets which Myanmar purchased in 2018, at a total cost of US$204m. The Senior General was in Moscow at the invitation of Russia’s defence ministry. He previously visited China, where he expressed thanks for Chinese support, and affirmed Myanmar’s commitment to BRI projects.

Sources: Myanmar Times, Irrawaddy, The Diplomat

Myanmar government lifts ban on sending domestic helpers to Singapore, other areas (26 Apr)

The Myanmar government has lifted a ban on sending domestic helpers to Singapore, Thailand, Hong Kong and Macau. U Peter Nyunt Maung of the Myanmar Overseas Employment Agencies Federation noted that despite this ban, domestic helpers had continued seeking employment in these countries, and that full legalisation would assist in regulatory efforts. The Myanmar government banned the sending of domestic workers abroad in 2014 in response to cases of abuse on Myanmar maids in foreign countries.

Sources: Myanmar Times

State Counsellor reaffirms Myanmar’s commitment to BRI (26 Apr)

At a meeting with Chinese President Xi Jinping, State Counsellor Daw Aung San Suu Kyi gestured to Myanmar’s long-standing participation in the BRI and indicated its willingness to continue participating in ‘beneficial projects’. Myanmar signed on to the China-Myanmar Economic Corridor initiative in September 2018, which outlines plans to link Kunming in China’s Yunnan province through central Myanmar to the deep-water port of Kyaukpyu in western Rakhine state. Of the 40 projects under the CMEC framework, Myanmar has announced that it will prioritise nine of them in power, roads, bridges, communications, construction, agriculture, research, and technology. Daw Aung San Suu Kyi is expected to discuss and sign further projects with China over the course of her stay in Beijing.

Sources: Myanmar Times

Thailand

Election Commission moves to disqualify Future Forward Party leader (23 Apr)

Thailand’s Election Commission moved to disqualify Future Forward Party leader Thanathorn Jungroongruangkit on the grounds that he held shares in V-Luck Media Company. Under Thailand’s electoral laws, members of parliament are forbidden from owning stock in media companies. Thanathorn had previously asserted that his interests in V-Luck Media Company had been sold to his mother prior to his registering as a political candidate. His Future Forward Party won the third-most seats in the recent elections. Thanathorn is also accused of sedition for allegedly aiding anti-junta protesters in 2015, as well as for cybercrime, for a speech he made on Facebook criticizing the junta in 2018.

Sources: Reuters, Bangkok Post

Constitutional Court declines to rule on contested method for allocating party-list seats (24 Apr)

Thailand’s Constitutional Court dismissed a petition by the Election Commission calling for it to rule on the legitimacy of its method of calculating party-list seats, which has been contested recently. The Court’s refusal to rule on the formula’s legality opens the Election Commission up to legal action by political parties disadvantaged because of its use. This may mean further delays in forming government, as the Election Commission will now need to more carefully assess whether its methodologies are aligned with constitutional regulations. Previously announced plans indicated that the commission intended to round up decimals in allocating seats based on percentage, which would give seats to 11 small parties who fell short of the required threshold for popular votes. Larger political parties have claimed that this approach breaches the constitution.

Sources: Bangkok Post, Straits Times, Reuters

World Bank lowers growth projection for Thailand (24 Apr)

World Bank economist Kiatipong Ariyapratya stated that the bank had revised projections of economic growth for 2019 downwards from 3.9% to 3.8%. This is also lower than the 4.1% growth reported in 2018. This was reportedly due to expected pressures on trade, which also led to lowered export growth projections for 2019 and 2020. Mr Kiatipong noted that these projections did not currently account for local political factors, but said that delays in forming the next government could affect Thailand’s investment outlook into 2021. This follows Siam Commercial Bank’s recent move to cut expectations for economic growth earlier this month amidst similar concerns regarding trade.

Sources: Bangkok Post, The Nation

Thailand signs Memorandum of Cooperation with China and Laos to develop rail links (26 Apr)

Thailand’s Transport Minister Arkhom Termpittayapaisith has signed an MOC with Laotian Transport Minister Bounchanh Sinthavong and vice chairman of China’s National Development and Reform Commission Hu Zucai to develop rail links between Nong Khai in north-eastern Thailand and Vientiane in Laos. The project is set to span 873km when completed, and will link Laos and Thailand to Kunming, the capital of China’s Yunnan province. Despite being under discussion since 2014, the project has suffered delays due to disagreements over design, financing and technical assistance. Thailand has indicated that while it will not accept Chinese financial assistance, it will be relying on Chinese expertise, and purchasing Chinese equipment and rail technology.

Sources: Bangkok Post, Reuters, The Nation

Stock Exchange of Thailand signs MOU with Shenzhen Stock Exchange (26 Apr)

The Stock Exchange of Thailand (SET) has signed an MOU with the Shenzhen Stock Exchange to expand business opportunities for Thai and Chinese SMEs. The MOU aims primarily to strengthen linkages between the network of companies subscribing to both stock exchanges. SET President Pakorn Peetathawatchai also noted that the agreement will also facilitate cooperation for cross-border product development on exchange-traded funds, depositary receipts and indices for green finance products, among others.

Source: Thailand Business News, Bangkok Post