Indonesia

Fourth Presidential Debate Excites as Election Nears (30 Mar)

The fourth presidential debate between incumbent Joko Widodo “Jokowi” and Prabowo Subianto occurred on 30 March, Saturday, and covered ideology, governance, security and foreign affairs. The two candidates sparred over issues such as Indonesia’s defence budget, which Prabowo maintains is too low. Yet Prabowo did not repeat his criticisms of the Jokowi administration’s engagement of China. He also pledged his commitment to the state ideology of Pancasila amid allegations that he supports conservative Islamic groups. The fifth and final debate is scheduled to occur on 13 April, and will cover the economy, social welfare, investment as well as trade and industry.

Sources: Jakarta Post, Bloomberg, The Straits Times

Jokowi Launches Three SEZs Aimed at Attracting US$7.7 billion of Investment (1 Apr)

Jokowi launched three special economic zones (SEZs) in East Kalimantan, North Sulawesi and North Maluku on Monday, 1 April. The SEZs, which cover over 2,200 hectares of land, are positioned to attract US$7.73 billion of investment and create 120,000 jobs by 2025. To date, the zone has attracted roughly US$370 million of investment commitments. The announcement, which comes ahead of the presidential election, spurred rumours that it was being used for political capital.

Sources: South China Morning Post

Batam Port to receive US$115 million Injection from Pelindo I (3 Apr)

Indonesian state port operator Pelindo I announced on Tuesday, 2 April, that it is further upgrading Batam Port with a US$84.7 million injection. The investment plan aims to enhance the cargo handling capacity of the port, which currently incurs unnecessary costs such as having to pay for container inspection fees carried out in Singapore. Bloomberg news reported in February that Indonesia aims for Batam to become an alternative shipping and manufacturing hub to Singapore, and hopes to draw US$60 billion in new investments to the area.

Sources: The Straits Times, Bloomberg

Maritime Affairs Minister Pans Prabowo for Corruption Loss Claims (7-9 Apr)

Speaking at Jakarta’s Gelora Bung Karno Main Stadium on Sunday, 7 April, Prabowo Subianto said that he is committed to realising a corruption-free government should he win the presidential election. He asserted that corruption had resulted in losses of 2 trillion rupiah (US$141.2 billion) that could have been used to benefit the people, and criticised Jokowi’s stance towards foreign investors as being too liberal. These assertions were rubbished by Coordinating Minister for Maritime Affairs Luhut Pandjaitan, who emphasised that the government had complied with all laws in seeking foreign investors. He also cast doubt on the validity of Prabowo’s claim of a US$141.2 billion leak, saying that the state budget was only US$169.4 billion.

Sources: Antara News, The Straits Times

SBY Slams Prabowo Rally as “Too Exclusive” (7 Apr)

Prabowo Subianto has claimed that 1 million people attended his open rally at the Gelora Bung Karno Main Stadium in Jakarta on Sunday, 7 April. Aside from questions about how the stadium with roughly 80,000 seats could accommodate such a large crowd, the rally earned a rebuke from Democratic Party patron and Former-President Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono (SBY). The Democrats are ostensibly in Prabowo’s camp, but have not been active in campaigning for him. In a written statement from Singapore, Yudhoyono criticised the event, which featured Islamic prayers and a video appearance by exiled cleric Rizieq Shihab, as being “too exclusive”. He warned that pursuing a campaign through such events ran the risk of polarising the electorate.

Sources: Jakarta Post

Prabowo Calls on Supporters to Reject Election Result if Incumbent Wins (11 Apr)

While most polls show that incumbent President Jokowi has a double digit lead over his opponent Prabowo Subianto in terms of electability, Prabowo’s camp maintains that the former general is on course to win the election with 62% of the vote. The figure, based on polls conducted by his campaign team, was released on Monday, 8 April. Prabowo himself has openly challenged his supporters at rallies to reject the election result if Jokowi is re-elected, saying that they “will not accept an election that is stolen”.

Sources: Tempo.co, The Straits Times

Malaysia

Malaysia Withdraws from the Rome Statute, Leaders Blame Threat of Coup (5 Apr)

The Pakatan Harapan (PH) government announced that it has decided not to ratify the Rome Statute of the International Criminal Court (ICC), which could prosecute perpetrators of genocide, war crimes, crimes against humanity and crimes of aggression. Malaysia had previously signed the Statute on 4 March. High ranking leaders such as Foreign Minister Saifuddin Abdullah blamed this reversal on fears of a coup d’etat by members of the “deep state” that consists of people who are “not democratically elected”. In particular, the Conference of Rulers was singled out as one source of the opposition to the Statute. Members of the royalty accused the government of failing to consult with them on the Statute, thereby violating the constitution. Further, in papers leaked by student activists on 7 April, four academics warned the Yang di-Pertuan Agong that he and other members of the royalty could be prosecuted by the ICC under the Statute.

Sources: The Star, Free Malaysia Today, Malay Mail

PH Amendment to Make Sabah, Sarawak Equal Partners Fails (9 Apr)

The PH government failed in its bid to amend the federal constitution to return Sabah and Sarawak to being equal partners to the 11 states of Peninsular Malaysia on Tuesday, 9 April. The amendment fell 10 votes short of the requisite two-thirds majority in the 222-member lower house, with most opposition MPs reportedly abstaining from the vote. Sabah and Sarawak’s status as equal partners was altered in 1976, and the two have been considered the 12^th and 13^th states since then. Restoring this status was a key promise in PH’s election manifesto, but opposition MPs criticised the bill for being “cosmetic”, and called for a special select committee to look further into it. A second attempt to push the amendment through is expected in the near future.

Sources: The Edge Markets, The Straits Times, The Star

Johor MB Resigns, as Test of Strength Between Dr Mahathir and Royals Looms (9 Apr)

Johor’s Menteri Besar Osman Sapian tendered his resignation to Prime Minister Dr Mahathir Mohamad on Monday, 8 April. Osman had been involved in a series of incidents in recent months, including the fake qualifications scandal, where it emerged that he did not have a degree from Universiti Putra Malaysia as claimed by the Johor government website. His visit to the Malaysian government vessel Pedoman in January led to the postponement of the 14^th meeting of the Joint Ministerial Committee for Iskandar Malaysia. More recently on 2 April, Johor Crown Prince Tunku Ismail Sultan Ibrahim claimed that the Johor government had been kept in the dark about the central government’s plans for a ship-to-ship hub in Johor Bahru port waters. The Straits Times and other regional media outlets have noted that this episode, and the expected appointment of the new Menteri Besar, are expected to be a test of strength between Dr Mahathir’s government and Malaysia’s royal households. The royal households have ostensibly won one round of sparring due to the Malaysian government’s withdrawal from the Rome Statute.

Sources: The Edge Markets, Malay Mail, South China Morning Post, The Straits Times

IDEAS: Government Performed “Reasonably Well” During First Year for Economic Promises (9 Apr)

The Institute for Democracy and Economic Affairs (IDEAS) published Projek Pantau on 9 April, detailing PH’s performance over the past year in fulfilling its electoral promises that are related to the economy. Breaking down 23 main promises into 192 sub-promises, IDEAS said that over 29% of PH’s economic promises have either been achieved, such as the abolishment of the goods and services tax (GST), or are on track, such as labour reforms. The think tank also noted that many pledges are proving difficult to fulfil. For example, PH has yet to outline a clear plan to reduce the presence of government-linked companies (GLCs) from key markets.

Sources: IDEAS Report Page, The Star, Malay Mail

The 9^th Malaysia-Singapore Leaders’ Retreat – Warming Ties? (9 Apr)

The 9^th Malaysia-Singapore Leaders’ Retreat occurred on Tuesday, 9 April in Putrajaya. This was the first retreat between Malaysian Prime Minister Dr Mahathir Mohamad and Singapore Prime Minister Lee Hsien Loong since the Pakatan Harapan (PH) government took office in May 2018. The agenda for the meeting was extensive, including (1) Maritime boundary issues, following Malaysia’s gazetting of an extension of the Johor Bahru port limits on 25 October 2018, (2) Control of the airspace over Southern Johor, (3) Cross-border railway projects and (4) Reviewing the 1962 water agreement.

Outcomes (From this joint statement)

• On Maritime Boundary Issues, the two foreign ministers agreed to suspend their respective countries’ port limit extensions, and cease to anchor government vessels in the area. Negotiations on boundary delimitation are expected to commence within a month.

• Malaysian leaders stated their intention to review existing arrangements for air traffic services provision over the southern tip of Peninsular Malaysia, and PM Lee said that Singapore is ready to discuss the matter with Malaysia.

(Note: Malaysia and Singapore’s transport ministers reached an agreement on airspace issues on Saturday, 6 April, with Singapore agreeing to withdraw ILS procedures or Seletar Airport and Malaysia indefinitely suspending its permanent restricted area over Pasir Gudang)

• On rail, Malaysian leaders requested to suspend the Johor Bahru-Singapore Rapid Transit System (RTS) Link for six months from 1 April to reassess their options, while assuring Singapore that they still support such a linkway. PM Lee said that the attorneys-general of both countries have been tasked to work a supplemental agreement to give effect to the suspension. Meanwhile, Malaysia is continuing to review the KL-Singapore High Speed Rail Project in search of cheaper options. The suspension agreement, signed in 2018, will expire in May 2020.

• On water, both PM Lee and Dr Mahathir expressed interest in schemes and measures to increase the yield of the Johor River and safeguard its environmental conditions and water quality. They also noted their differing positions on the right to review the 1962 water agreement, but pledged to seek “amicable solutions, including the possibility of dispute resolution through arbitration on a mutually agreed basis”.

Separately, Singapore’ EZ-Link and Malaysia’s Touch ‘N Go announced that they will co-develop a dual currency Combi Card. The card, which is targeted to launch in the fourth quarter of 2019, will enable users to pay for their public transportation trips on both sides of the causeway.

Coverage of the event has been largely hopeful in Singaporean media (CNA: Singapore, Malaysia affirm commitment to cooperative and forward-looking bilateral relationship, ST: Vast potential for Malaysia, Singapore to move ahead together: PM Lee). Malaysian media tended to focus on the prospect of arbitration over the 1962 water agreement, and on Prime Minister Lee Hsien Loong’s comments about how border rows could “poison” bilateral ties and his defence of Singapore’s fake news law.

Sources: Malay Mail, New Straits Times, The Star, The Edge Markets, The Star (Combi Card)

Early Voting Completed for the Upcoming Rantau By-Election (9 Apr)

Early voting for the Rantau state by-election was completed on 9 April, Tuesday, with a 96% early turnout. The four candidates will be battling for the support of roughly 20,000 voters, of whom 55.5% are Malay, 18.5% Chinese and 26.0% Indian. The Barisan Nasional candidate, acting United Malays National Organisation (UMNO) President Mohamad Hasan, was the former Negri Sembilan Menteri Besar and three-term assemblyman for Rantau. In contrast, Parti Keadilan Rakyat (PKR) member Dr S. Streram has described himself as an underdog. However, Dr Streram’s campaign has been supported by the efforts of PKR President Anwar Ibrahim. The main polls are scheduled to take place on 13 April, Saturday.

Sources: The Star, Malaysiakini, Malay Mail

Malaysia to Pump US$1.5 billion into FELDA (11 Apr)

The Malaysian government announced that it would be injecting US$1.5 billion of financial aid into state-owned palm oil plantation agency FELDA (the Federal Land Development Authority), following a government inquiry found poor management had led to high losses and debt over the past decade. A white paper, tabled in parliament on 10 April, Wednesday, said that FELDA’s total liabilities had risen 12-fold over 10 years between 2007 and 2017. Former Prime Minister Najib Razak was said to have spent US$656 million to garner political support during elections.

Sources: Business Times, The Star, Malay Mail

Myanmar

Sembcorp gas-fired power plant win praise and flak at opening (18 Mar, 4 Apr)

Sembcorp officially opened its US$310 mil power plant in Mandalay with funding from ADB, AIIB, IFC and other global commercial lenders, including DBS and OCBC. The plant will meet Myanmar’s power demand which is rising by 19% annually. It marks the delivery of the first competitively-tendered independent power facility and shows the success of Myanmar’s new private-public partnership model. While some in Myanmar have criticised the project, Sembcorp has attempted to refute these. For example, with regards criticisms that the plant’s wastewater discharge will pollute the Ayeyarwady, the Sembcorp Myingyan Power Company has said that such water has undergone treatment and is in fact “safe and clean”.

Sources: Straits Times, Frontier Myanmar

Myanmar opens insurance market to Prudential, Dai-ichi and others (6 Apr)

Myanmar’s government provisionally authorized five insurance MNCs (Prudential, Dai-ichi, AIA, Manulife and Chubb) to establish wholly owned subsidiaries in Myanmar. This marks the first time that the heavily-state-controlled economy has allowed foreign ownership in its fledgling insurance market. In addition to the five companies, the government will choose by May other foreign insurers allowed to form joint ventures with local providers under a 35% ownership cap. Some Japanese players (e.g. Mitsui Sumitomo, Tokio Marine) and Thai players (e.g. Maung Thai Life Assurance) are in talks with potential partners. Nonetheless, it will take some effort to introduce concepts of risk and insurance in a place that for decades has lacked trust in financial institutions and exposure to how insurance works.

Sources: Nikkei Asian Review, The Diplomat

Fresh clashes in Myanmar’s Rakhine state temple town (10 Apr)

Fighting between the Myanmar army and the Arakan Army has escalated in the touristy Mrauk U in March. Military jets have been destroying houses and attacking indiscriminately by dropping bombs and bullets from the air. People are now afraid to leave their homes. The AA has killed at least 22 police officers since fighting ramped up in January and the government has also killed dozens of AA rebels. According to the UN Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs (OCHA), indiscriminate attacks on civilians (7 killed, 18 injured) and use of landmines by the military may constitute war crimes. The Rohingyas constitute a proportion of those indiscriminately subjected to violence, killed or injured amidst the clashes. Some were completely uninvolved, cutting bamboos and going about their daily tasks but found themselves randomly shot by the military. Thousands of troops have been deployed to try to quell the unrest and business and tourism in Mrauk U has been affected.

Sources: Channel News Asia (1), Channel News Asia (2), Straits Times, Al Jazeera

Reuters Journalists Jailed in Myanmar to Receive UN Press Freedom Prize (11 Apr)

Two Reuters journalists who are currently serving seven-year prison sentences in Myanmar are to be awarded the 2019 UNESCO/Guillermo Cano Press Freedom Prize, which honours the defense and promotion of press freedom.

Sources: Time, Frontier Myanmar

Thailand

66 Candidates Face Disqualification as EC Processes Complaints and Results (5 Apr)

Officials from Thailand’s Election Commission (EC) said on Friday, 5 April, that 66 winning candidates in the 24 March election face possible disqualification because of complaints filed against them. While omitting which parties these candidates belong to, the officials said that 300 complaints had been filed. Successful disqualification would also have ramifications for calculating the party seats. Aside from this investigation, the EC ordered a re-count at two polling stations, and a new poll in six others due to voting irregularities.

Sources: Channel NewsAsia, South China Morning Post, The Straits Times

Confusion and Concern Over Changes to the EC’s Calculation Method for Party List Seats (5 Apr)

Thai election observers are expressing concerns over the EC’s method of calculating of party list MP seats, which they assert has changed since before the election. The comments came after the EC announced on Friday, 5 April that no less than 25 political parties will obtain at least one party-list seat. Prior to the election, the EC estimated that at least 70,000 votes would be needed for the allocation of one party list seat. Under the new formula, however, the threshold was reduced to 35,000. Media reports have suggested that the new formula will chip away at the seats held by the anti-junta coalition led by Pheu Thai and Future Forward. Meanwhile, the EC has asked the Constitutional Court to rule on the legality of its method of calculating and allocating party list seats.

Sources: Bangkok Post, Khaosod English, South China Morning Post

Students, Activists Call for Impeachment of the EC (5 Apr)

University students from across Thailand launched an online petition to impeach the EC under the banner ‘New Generation People for Social Change’, which garnered nearly 850,000 votes on the change.org website. Activists have also petitioned the National Anti-Corruption Commission directly to recommend that the Supreme Court impeach the EC’s seven commissioners. The EC has attracted widespread criticism in its handling of the Thai election, with observers expressing concern at inconsistent reporting of results and apparent procedural errors.

Sources: Nikkei Asian Review, Khaosod English

Thanatorn Charged, Likely to Face Military Court (6 Apr)

Future Forward Party leader Thanathorn Juangroonruangkit is facing numerous criminal charges by the National Council for Peace and Order (NCPO), including sedition, helping a student activist flee arrest, and taking part in an unlawful gathering. Thanathorn has denied all the charges, which he says are politically motivated. He is, however, expected to be tried by a military court due to the charge on sedition. If found guilty, he could face up to nine years in prison and electoral disqualification.

Sources: Bangkok Post, Khaosod English

Trade War Concerns Lead to Lower Growth Projections (11 Apr)

Siam Commercial Bank’s economic research unit has lowered expectations for Thailand’s economic growth in 2019 to 3.6% due to ongoing pressure on exports under the US-China trade war. The unit had originally forecasted a growth rate of 3.8% for 2019. The superpower rivalry, however, is expected to be a long term concern that will disrupt regional supply chains. The International Monetary Fund also cut its forecast for global GDP growth from 3.5% in January to 3.3% in April.

Sources: The Nation, IMF Blog