[PREMIUM] Country Updates (22 July-4 Aug 2021)

Sources: Our World in Data, Worldometer, Straits Times. *As of 1 Aug, **As of 3 Aug

Malaysia

Malaysia’s opposition MPs and youths protest demand PM Muhyiddin’s resignation (July 30-2 Aug)

Opposition lawmakers gathered at Merdeka Square on Monday, 2 August after they were denied entry into the Parliament. The parliamentary session on Monday was cancelled after Covid-19 infections were detected at the special sitting last week. However, opposition MPs said they did not agree to the suspension of parliament.

A five-day parliamentary session was organised from 26 July to 2 August for the government to provide an update on the country’s response to Covid-19. Parliamentary sessions have been suspended from January under the state of emergency ordinance. At the beginning of the special sitting on 26 July, Law Minister Takiyuddin Hassan said that emergency ordinances introduced during the state of emergency were revoked on 21 July. However, the palace released a statement on 29 July stating that the government had revoked the ordinances without the King’s approval and MPs were “misled” by the government. The Prime Minister’s Office maintained that the government’s actions were “in accordance with Malaysia’s laws and Constitution”. A no-confidence motion against Muhyiddin was filed by opposition lawmakers last week. However, given the suspension of Parliament, the motion will only likely be heard in September when Parliament resumes.

Hundreds of protestors gathered in the city centre of Kuala Lumpur last weekend calling for the resignation of Prime Minister Muhyiddin. The protesters were a coalition of youth and civil society groups, called the Sekretariat Solidariti Rakyat (People’s Solidarity Secretariat).The coalition called for the resumption of parliamentary sessions and automatic bank loan moratoriums to help people struggling financially as a result of the pandemic.

Sources: CNA; Bloomberg; Straits Times; SCMP; Straits Times (2)

Prime Minister Muhyiddin claims he has a majority even as UMNO officially withdraws support (3-4 Aug)

The United Malays National Organisation (UMNO), Malaysia’s largest political party, has informed the King, Sultan Abdullah Ri’ayatuddin, that the party has withdrawn its support for Prime Minister Muhyiddin Yassin’s government. An UMNO lawmaker, Shamsul Anuar Nasarah, Energy and Natural Resources Minister, also resigned from Muhyiddin’s cabinet. In a press conference, UMNO President Ahmad Zahid Hamidi said Muhyiddin has “effectively lost his majority in the lower house”. However, it is unclear if Ahmad Zahid has full control over UMNO, with the party reportedly having two main factions. The second faction is led by Ismail Sabri Yaakob, who Muhyiddin recently appointed Deputy Prime Minister. Muhyiddin’s shaky coalition is reliant on UMNO’s 38 lower house members for support. Even with just Ahman Zahid’s faction withdrawing its support, Muhyiddin would have lost his majority in the lower house.

In a televised address after meeting the King, Muhyiddin claimed to have a majority in parliament and said there is “no reason” for him to withdraw. Muhyiddin said the King has consented to a confidence vote when Parliament resumes in September.

Sources: Nikkei Asia; Business Times; Straits Times; Bloomberg; Straits Times (2)

Myanmar

Myanmar’s military ruler pledges elections by 2023 and cooperation with ASEAN (1 Aug)

Six months after the coup, on 1 August, Myanmar’s military chief Min Aung Hliang named himself the Prime Minister of the Provisional Government of Myanmar, which replaced the State Administration Council declared in February. During the televised address, Min Aung Hlaing also vowed to lift the country’s state of emergency by August 2023, an extension from the initial one-year timeline announced after the coup. He further promised new multi-party elections and guaranteed the establishment of a “union based on democracy and federalism”. In addition, he pledged the military’s willingness to work with the ASEAN special envoy.

The US has dismissed the newly announced election plans and called for ASEAN to step up efforts as it believes that the junta is extending the timeline for elections to stall time and consolidate power. Similarly, the National Unity Government (NUG), Myanmar’s shadow government, has rejected the General’s announcement, asserting that it is the military’s attempt to establish legitimacy in the eyes of the international community. This week, ASEAN’s leaders are holding a series of meetings with discussion on Myanmar’s crisis on the agenda.

Sources: CNA; Straits Times; SCMP; Straits Times (2); Straits Times (3); CNA (2)

Myanmar at risk of becoming super-spreader Covid state (28 Jul)

Despite Myanmar facing its most severe Covid-19 outbreak, deep political turmoil has caused many to refuse to be tested, treated or vaccinated in a bid to reject the junta. This brings an added dimension of challenge to managing the pandemic and United Nations experts have warned that a continued surge in cases in Myanmar may fuel outbreaks across the region. This is troubling as approximately a third of the world’s population lives in countries neighbouring Myanmar, such as China.

Amid skyrocketing numbers, healthcare provision in Myanmar also continues to be sorely lacking. Doctors who earlier participated in the country’s Civil Disobedience Movement have not returned to work, fearing arrest. So far, junta forces have engaged in at least 260 attacks against medical personnel and facilities, killing more than 18 people, holding 67 in detention. Arrest warrants have also been issued for a further 600 medics. There are also accounts of military officials posing as Covid-19 patients in need of treatment to entrap medical volunteers in Yangon. The targeting of not only doctors, but also journalists, has made it challenging to obtain accurate information about the crisis.

In addition, some sources have also alluded to the military’s attempts at “weaponizing” the crisis, refusing to treat or distribute personal protection equipment and masks to supporters of the pro-democracy movement.

Sources: The Guardian, CNA

Indonesia

Covid-19 curbs extended in Indonesia as daily death toll remains high (Aug 3)

Indonesian President Joko Widodo has extended Covid-19 restrictions in major cities and provinces, including Jakarta and Bali, until 9 August. The partial lockdown has been in place since 3 July. Most of the Covid-19 infections and deaths are centred around major cities in Java and Bali. Daily infections have decreased from a peak of 50,000 cases in mid-July to 39,000 cases presently. However, the death toll remains alarmingly high, with a daily average of 1,789 deaths. Indonesia currently has the highest daily death resulting from Covid-19 globally. According to Health Minister Budi Gunadi Sadikin, hospital occupancy for Covid-19 patients has declined and he attributes the high death toll to an unwillingness to receive treatment until conditions have worsened.

Vaccination remains a key strategy for the Indonesian government. The health minister said 4 million doses of the Moderna vaccine, donated by the US, have been dispatched across the archipelago and will be used as a booster shot for health workers. However, reports indicate that several provinces are slow to administer the Covid-19 vaccine. Only 75% of vaccine doses dispatched across the archipelago have been administered.

Sources: Nikkei Asia; CNA; Straits Times

IMF downgrades Indonesia’s growth forecast (29 July)

The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has lowered its forecast for Indonesia’s 2021 GDP growth by 0.4% to 3.9%. This pessimistic forecast propounded by the IMF is due to the worsening Covid-19 situation as a result of the highly transmissible Delta variant and the low vaccination rate in the country. The IMF’s projection also mirrored that of the Indonesian government’s reassessment of its GDP growth which initially hovered at around 4.5% to 5.3% but has now dwindled to between 3.7% and 4.5%.

In the first quarter of 2021, Indonesia showed progress with a smaller annual GDP contraction of 0.74% as compared to last year. According to Finance Minister Sri Mulyani Indrawati, the annual GDP growth is predicted to improve due to low inflation in the second quarter but growth would slow down to between 4 and 5.4% in the August-to-September period. GDP is expected to increase between 4.6 and 5.9% in the last quarter. Sri Mulyani also highlighted that the drop in GDP growth in the third quarter would affect consumer spending and investment. The exponential rise in cases and deaths has also necessitated the government to allocate an additional recovery budget amounting to Rp 46 trillion (US$3.17 billion). This implies that the country’s coronavirus stimulus comprises over 4.8% of Indonesia’s GDP in 2018. Experts have stressed that economic rebound is only possible if cases reduce fast and if emergency restrictions are lifted.

Sources: The Jakarta Post, Reuters

US launches a “strategic dialogue” with Indonesia (3 Aug)

A “strategic dialogue” will be launched between the US and Indonesia, according to US Secretary of State Anthony Blinken. Blinken met with Indonesian Foreign Minister Retno Marsudi in Washington, ahead of the US-ASEAN virtual meeting. The US State Department said the US and Indonesia are committed to working together on issues, including Covid-19, the climate crisis and defending freedom of navigation in the South China Sea. The US has donated eight million Covid-19 vaccine doses to Indonesia, and will be donating oxygen and medical supplies.

The US and Indonesia agreed to establish a “strategic partnership” in 2015, but little progress had been made. As the largest ASEAN country, Indonesia is key for Washington’s effort to counter China’s influence in the region. The talks between Blinken and Retno come as military personnel from Indonesia and the US take part in a two-week joint military drill.

Sources: SCMP; CNA; Straits Times

Thailand

Thailand’s Covid-19 surges strain hospitals, lockdown expanded (1 Aug)

Thailand is battling its most severe Covid-19 wave, driven by the highly infectious Delta variant. Lockdown measures in Bangkok and other high-risk zones will be extended for two more weeks. Hospitals in Thailand’s capital Bangkok and its surrounding provinces are running out of capacity, prompting an increase in the number of people required to isolate at home. Thai officials earlier aimed for the country to achieve herd immunity in the first half of next year, but the officials now say that milestone is unlikely to be reached until after 2022.

Given the situation, Phuket will ban travel from the rest of the country from 3 to 16 August. Overseas visitors remain largely unaffected. Plans to restart tourism in other parts of the country seem uncertain at the moment and it is unclear if Thailand can achieve its tourism-driven economic recovery goals this year. Reportedly, Thailand is expected to be the worst economic performer in Southeast Asia in 2021 and its Finance Ministry has cut its 2021 GDP forecast to 1.3% growth, from the 2.3% it expected in April. Some economists have also raised concerns over a possible technical recession or a second straight annual contraction, which Thailand has not experienced since the 1997 Asian Financial Crisis.

Sources: Straits Times (1), Straits Times (2), CNA, Bloomberg

Thai ‘car mob’ protesters demand Prayuth’s resignation (2 Aug)

With dissatisfaction over the government’s handling of the pandemic on the rise, protesters drove in the streets of Bangkok in cars and motorcycles on 1 August, demanding for Prime Minister Prayuth Chan-o-cha’s resignation. Similar rallies have also taken place in other provinces. Protesters have chosen to rally in this manner to observe social distancing measures. In an effort to protect their identities, protesters wore masks or face coverings and covered their license plates with protest messages.

The protestors took extra efforts to protect their identities given the Thai government’s reputation for employing draconian laws against political dissidents. Notably, on 30 July, in a bid to further clamp down on protestors, the government imposed an emergency decree banning the sharing of “false messages” that may impact security. Under the decree, the National Broadcasting and Telecommunications Commission can trace IP addresses that spread fake news and notify the police to pursue legal action.

Sources: Nikkei Asia; Bangkok Post

Vietnam

Vietnam extends lockdown measures in the south; receives vaccine technology (30 Jul – ongoing)

Vietnam continues to experience a record of daily Covid-19 infections at around 7,500. 19 southern localities, equivalent to one-third of the country, have extended social distancing rules under Directive 16 for another two weeks. On 31 July, central hub Danang also entered the same directive. To reduce the burden on overstretched public medical facilities, the Health Ministry is piloting a home-isolation programme for asymptomatic patients. They have appealed for private hospitals to treat Covid-19 patients and are looking into using antiviral drug remdesivir in Covid-19 treatment plans.

In Ho Chi Minh City, movement restrictions have expanded to ban cross-district deliveries. This has further disrupted the circulation of goods, raising the difficulty for local residents to procure necessities. In localities affected by lockdown measures, the government has ordered utility fee reductions to ease the economic burdens from extended restrictions. From August to September, residents of areas like HCMC and Hanoi will enjoy discounts on water and electricity bills. Vietnam’s major telecommunications providers have announced a joint support package worth VND 10,000 billion (SGD 588 million). The package will increase the internet’s speed and affordability for consumers across Vietnam, and will last until November.

On the vaccine front, HCMC recently received a million doses of Vero Cell vaccines from Chinese-firm Sinopharm. The city is also accelerating vaccine roll out by lengthening opening hours for vaccine centres and reducing procedures before and after the jab. Vietnam received 1.188 million AstraZeneca vaccine doses from the COVAX programme, which has delivered 8.6 million doses so far. Additionally, major private conglomerate Vingroup will be conducting a third phase clinical trial of a mRNA-based candidate in around 20,000 adults. This comes after signing a deal for vaccine tech transfer with California-based Arcturus Therapeutics Holdings Inc. Vingroup has also gained the domestic manufacturing rights for Arcturus’s vaccines; they are preparing a vaccine production facility in Hanoi.

Sources: VNExpress(1), Straits Times, Tuoi Tre News, VNExpress(2), Reuters

Optimistic prospects for Vietnam’s economic recovery (July 28)

Despite disruptions from the fourth Covid-19 wave, Vietnam’s trade balance appears strong. In July, export earnings stood at USD 27 billion (SGD 36.4 billion), down 0.8% month-on-month. But an increase in imports by 3.8% on-month, most of which was on materials, suggest that Vietnam’s domestic production will recover in the next few months. Vietnam’s garment-textiles industry has benefited from the recovery of demand from the US, China and Europe. The industry recorded an export turnover of nearly USD 19 billion (SGD 25.64 billion) in the first six months of 2021, an increase of over 20% on-year.

Vietnam is still positioned to be the fastest growing economy in the region this year. The IMF has lowered growth forecasts for all major Southeast Asian economies except Vietnam, which will still be expected to grow by 6.5% this year. The Vietnamese government has also adopted a 2021-2025 development plan to sustain a similar level of growth for the next five years.

Sources: BizHub, Vietnam Insider(1), Vietnam Insider(2), Hanoi Times