ASEAN Country Updates (7 July)

Sources: Our World in Data, Worldometer

Indonesia

Indonesian government expands Covid-19 restrictions nation-wide (7 July) 

Indonesia has further expanded its Covid-19 restrictions across the archipelago, in order to combat the surge in Covid-19 infections. The restrictions were previously limited to Java and Bali. The new restrictions include the closure of malls, places of worship and restaurants, restricted movement within cities, non-essential workers must work from home and closure of schools. The lockdown measures are expected to end on 20 July, in hopes of bringing daily cases below 10 thousand. The restrictions also mean that Bali has to delay its plan to reopen to international tourists.

The recent surge is partly due to the more infectious Delta variant of the virus, which accounts for more than 80 per cent of new cases in some areas, according to health authorities. Several hospitals are reportedly full and are experiencing a shortage of oxygen tanks. Indonesia’s Coordinating Minister for Maritime Affairs and Investment Luhut Pandjaitan said daily cases could be expected to rise to 40,000 and the government is preparing for the worst-case scenario. The government is seeking assistance from other countries, including the US, China and Singapore, for medical supplies and has plans to increase oxygen supplies and increase isolation facilities. The US said it will ship 4 million doses of the Moderna Covid-19 vaccine to Indonesia. Indonesia is banking its hopes on vaccination, the government has accelerated its timeline to inoculate residents.

Sources: SCMP; Straits Times;  CNA; Straits Times (2); CNA (2); Straits Times (3)

Indonesian government revises 2021 GDP target (6 July)

The Indonesian government has downgraded its 2021 GDP growth target to between 3.7% to 4.5% due to the recent Covid-19 partial lockdown in Java and Bali. Previously, the government had expected the country’s 2021 GDP to grow between 4.5% to 5.3%. The Covid-19 restrictions will put a damper on consumption, growth in exports and investments, which collectively accounts for over 80% of Indonesia’s GDP. In 2020, Indonesia’s GDP contracted by 5.32%, the steepest drop since the Asian Financial Crisis.

Sources: Jakarta Post; CNA; Antara

Indonesia to ban entry by unvaccinated foreigners (5 July)

The delta variant has caused a surge in Indonesia’s Covid-19 cases, and in response, the government has introduced further restrictions on travel which began on 6 July. Only fully vaccinated foreign travellers are allowed to enter the country. Visitors will need to show a vaccination certificate and a negative PCR test, before entering an eight-day quarantine. Foreigners need a valid residence permit or a special visa to be authorised for travel within or transit through Indonesia. Unvaccinated Indonesian citizens who wish to enter Indonesia are required to present a negative PCR test result. They will be required to be vaccinated after serving quarantine. Vaccination certificate exemption is given to foreign diplomats, ministers, and travellers under the travel corridor arrangements (United Arab Emirates, China, South Korea and Singapore).

Sources: Nikkei Asia, Straits Times, Antara

Malaysia

Malaysia’s Parliament to reconvene from 26 July (5 July)

Malaysia’s Prime Minister, Muhyiddin Yassin, said parliament will reconvene from 26 July. This is a retreat from his previous statement that parliamentary sessions will only resume in September. Both Houses have been suspended since January when Muhyiddin declared a state of emergency to contain the pandemic. Muhyiddin has come under increasing pressure in the recent weeks, with the King issuing a rare statement calling for the legislative sessions to resume, amid a surge in Covid-19 cases. Muhyiddin’s government had previously said it was unfeasible to hold parliamentary sessions, even hybrid sessions, during the pandemic. His critics have accused the Prime Minister of suspending parliament as a way to hold on to power.

The Dewan Rakyat (lower house) will have a five day sitting from 26 July to 2 August, followed by a three-day Dewan Negara (upper house/Senate) session from 3 August. The sessions will be held in a hybrid format, with only half of the lawmakers expected to be in attendance physically. The Prime Minister’s Office said the parliamentary session will “provide information to the members of parliament on the National Recovery Plan and amend all legislation and regulations to enable parliamentary sittings to be held hybrid”.

Sources: Nikkei Asia; SCMP; Straits Times

Economic distress in the spotlight through Malaysia’s white flag movement

Extended lockdown measures in Malaysia have caused economic hardship to many Malaysians and have culminated in a social movement to help those in need. White flags are placed outside houses for families to signal they need food or other basic essentials. The “white flag” movement or #BenderaPutih gained traction on social media in the last week and highlights the plight of Malaysians who have lost their jobs and/or seen a reduction in their income as a result of the pandemic.

Malaysians are also blaming the current crisis on Prime Minister Muhyiddin Yassin. In another social campaign, people have turned to placing black flags outside their houses to protest against the Perikatan Nasional government. The black flag campaign or #BenderaHitam calls for the resignation of Prime Minister Muhyiddin Yassin and for the end of the state of emergency.

Sources: New York Times; SCMP; Straits Times; Nikkei Asia; Straits Times (2)

Myanmar

Myanmar frees 2,300 prisoners held since the coup (1 July)

On 30 June, Myanmar authorities released 2,296 anti-coup protesters from prisons nationwide. According to military spokesman Zaw Min Tun, the detainees who were released had been charged with incitement for joining the protests, but did not hold leading roles. A day earlier, the military also announced that it will drop charges against 24 celebrities who had participated in protests. The military did not provide specific reasons for its clemency. However, most believe it is an attempt to cultivate goodwill with its people. There is also the belief that this is the military’s attempt to alleviate pressure from the international community and rebuild its reputation.

Since the coup on 1 February, Myanmar has been thrown into chaos as the nation is swept by widespread protests. In retaliation, the military has cracked down on the pro-democracy movement. According to the Assistance Association for Political Prisoners (Burma), more than 890 people have been killed by the junta and more than 5,000 have been arrested, charged or sentenced.

Sources: CNA; Reuters; AP News

After pressuring telecom firms, Myanmar’s junta bans executives from leaving (5 Jul)

Telecom companies had been given until 5 July to fully implement intercept technology which they had previously been asked to install. The technology will allow authorities to spy on calls, messages and web traffic and track users. In June, senior executives, both foreign and Myanmar nationals, of major telecommunications firms were also ordered to not leave the country without permission. While there are no official reports stating how broadly the military’s surveillance technology has been installed and deployed thus far, sources say Norway’s Telenor ASA and Qatar’s Ooredoo QPSC had yet to comply in full. Myanmar’s telecom sector has been one of the fastest-growing globally, but it is unclear what the future holds. Last week, Telenor expressed that it might consider selling its Myanmar unit.

The Tatmadaw has not made public statements on its electronic surveillance effort. However, its intentions to have a tighter grip over the media and communication networks can be inferred through its actions. After seizing power, the military had immediately cut internet access which to date, has not been fully re-established. It also moved quickly in ordering Telecoms to block websites and phone numbers. This was followed by announcing its aims to pass a cybersecurity Bill that would require telecoms providers to provide data when requested and remove or block any content deemed to be disrupting “unity, stabilisation, and peace”. It also amended privacy laws to allow security forces to intercept communications.

Sources: CNA, Reuters (1), Reuters (2)

Thailand

Pandemic pushes millions of small Thai businesses into crisis (6 July)

The pandemic has resulted in many small Thai businesses drowning in debt and struggling to stay afloat. This is especially the case for SMEs from the tourism sector, which has suffered the most in light of curbs on international travel. The Bank of Thailand has made numerous calls to boost liquidity to SMEs nationwide. There have also been efforts to lend billions at low interest rates, institute loan-payment holidays and offer credit guarantee. However, current measures do not prove remarkable in rejuvenating SMEs and it remains to be seen if new measures will be introduced and whether they can bear fruit.

According to Sangchai Theerakulwanich, Chairman of the Federation of Thai SME, 80% of these small businesses could be bankrupt by the end of the year if the situation does not improve. This does not bode well for the country’s overall economic recovery. Notably, SMEs form the backbone of the Thai economy, contributing to approximately 35% of the country’s GDP pre-pandemic.

Sources: Bangkok Post; Bangkok Post (2); CNA

Thailand will acquire more mRNA vaccines (6 Jul)

Following a letter from the Infectious Disease Association of Thailand (IDAT) urging Prime Minister Prayuth Chan-ocha to secure more mRNA vaccines to better contain the outbreak, Thailand will obtain more mRNA vaccines in upcoming months. Thailand’s vaccination strategy has thus far relied heavily on the Sinovac vaccine, a non-mRNA vaccine but according to the IDAT, mRNA vaccines have a higher efficacy rate than that of Sinovac. On 30 June, Thailand announced plans to import nearly four million doses of Moderna’s mRNA coronavirus vaccine towards the end of this year and a further one million in early 2022, for use by private hospitals. It has also ordered 20 million doses of the Pfizer-BioNTech mRNA vaccine.

Last week, a document leaked from Thailand’s health ministry also prompted strong calls in Thailand for medical staff inoculated against Covid-19 to be given Pfizer-BioNTech mRNA vaccine booster. The document contained a comment from an unnamed official recommending that authorities do not give a booster shot of Pfizer-BioNTech’s vaccine to frontline health workers, because such a move would be “admitting that the Sinovac vaccine is not effective.” The document has been confirmed by Thai Health Minister Anutin Charnvirakul as being authentic and has been shared widely on social media.

Sources: CNN, Reuters

Vietnam

Vietnam’s Covid-19 tally reaches new high; Ho Chi Minh City becomes new epicenter (6 July – ongoing)

Vietnam continues to battle its most serious outbreak of Covid-19. Daily local infections have surged past the 1000 mark, with the southern region struggling the most. Ho Chi Minh City as the largest cluster recorded a total of 7,114 cases on 6 July 2021. Cases are concentrated in quarantine zones and lockdown areas, while mass testing has brought out more cases with unknown links. The authorities have closed several major wholesale food markets after discovering more links to cases. Though the situation in the industrial parks of Bac Giang and Bac Ninh have stabilised, they still have some of the highest cases among other provinces. On 6th July, Bac Giang recorded 5,667 cases and Bac Ninh recorded 1,622.

In light of tighter restrictions, the government has implemented a second support package for HCMC.  The VND 886 billion (SGD 51.9 million) package will last from July to the end of August 2021. The package aims to support employees at enterprises, business establishments, and educational institutions affected by the pandemic. Cash and bank payments will be made to employees, business household owners, and traders at traditional markets.

On 7th July, Vietnam received the first shipment of some 96,000 doses of the Pfizer/BioNTech vaccine. 3 million more doses of the same vaccine are expected to be delivered by the third quarter and 27-28 million doses by the fourth quarter. So far, Vietnam has garnered commitments for the supply of 105 million doses from different sources. The country is aiming to administer 300,000 to 500,000 doses per day by the second half of the year, and is seeking to produce a domestic Covid-19 vaccine by June 2022.

Source: VNExpress; Vietnam Insider; Hanoi Times; Vietnam Plus

Vietnam’s positive economic results for the first half of 2021 (29 June)

Despite the fourth wave of Covid-19 outbreak, Vietnam’s latest economic report shows signs of recovery. The General Statistics Office announced that the economy expanded by 5.64 per cent, below the government’s forecast of 5.8 percent, in the first half of the year. GDP rose 6.61 per cent in the second quarter compared to a year earlier. The growth in industrial exports is due to resurgent demand from the West and China, favourable weather for agricultural products, and increased government spending. Manufacturing expanded 11.4 per cent in the first half of the year despite disruptions from the industrial clusters. The State Bank of Vietnam said it will hold policy rates stable in the second half of the year and pursue flexible monetary and currency policies, as it remains vigilant about rising inflation. However with sporadic outbreaks, discovery of new virus variants, and a relatively slow vaccination rate, experts believe the economy is likely to suffer in the months ahead.

In the meantime, the 13th Party Central Committee opened its third plenum in Hanoi. Based on the first half of the year, the plenum would assess Vietnam’s development plans for 2021-25. On top of analysing political system regulations, the plenum will also consider the nomination of leading positions of State agencies during the 15th tenure of the National Assembly.

Source: Vietnam Insider; Bloomberg; ICIS; Vietnam News