ASEAN Country Updates

Sources: Our World in Data, Worldometer

Indonesia

Indonesia becomes world’s epicentre for the pandemic (July 14-21)

Indonesia’s daily cases of Covid-19 has surpassed other hotspots such as Brazil and India, and is currently the world’s epicentre for the pandemic. Covid-19 infections were averaging at 50,000 daily, but the number has dropped to over 40,000 in the last few days. Indonesian President Joko Widodo said if the current downward trend continues, Covid-19 curbs will be eased progressively from 26 July. However, experts have said that the lower daily case count could be due to lower testing rates as a result of the Eid al-Adha holiday. Less than 130 thousand people have been tested daily in the last few days, compared to 180 thousand people last week.

Sources: New York Times; Nikkei Asia; Bloomberg; CNA

Jokowi’s approval rating falls (July 19)

As the pandemic rages in Indonesia, President Jokowi’s approval rating has fallen from 68.9% in December 2020 to 59.6% in June 2021, according to a survey by Lembaga Survei Indonesia (LSI). 37.2% of the respondents have noted their dissatisfaction with the president’s handling of the pandemic. This is an increase from 28.9% in December. LSI noted that Indonesians are split over whether the government should impose harsh restrictions to contain the outbreak or focus on economic recovery. More Indonesians are worried about the country’s economy now as compared to September 2020. With regards to the vaccination, the survey noted that 84.9% of respondents support Indonesia’s mass vaccination campaign.

Sources: Bloomberg; Jakarta Post

Malaysia

Malaysia phases out Sinovac vaccine (16 July)

Malaysia will stop administering Sinovac Biotech’s Covid-19 vaccine once the current supplies run out, according to the Ministry of Health. The decision follows recent studies that show that the Sinovac vaccine has limited efficacy against the Delta variant of the virus that is currently plaguing Southeast Asia. Malaysia’s Health Minister Adham Baba said the government has procured 45 million doses of the Pfizer-BioNTech vaccine, which will cover 70% of the population. Half of the 16 million doses of the Sinovac vaccine secured have already been distributed. The other vaccines approved in Malaysia are AstraZeneca, CanSino Biologic and the Janssen vaccine of Johnson & Johnson.

Malaysia is planning on easing some of its Covid-19 restrictions for fully-vaccinated residents. The government estimated that 40% of residents will be vaccinated by the end of August and most of the population will be fully vaccinated by the end of October.

Sources: The Diplomat; CNA; Straits Times

Malaysia lowers 2021 GDP forecast (12 July)

Malaysia will lower its economic forecast for 2021 due to the spike in Covid-19 cases and the extension of the nationwide Movement Control Order (MCO). Finance Minister Tengku Zafrul Abdul Aziz and the coordinating minister for Malaysia’s National Recovery Plan, signalled the new forecast would be closer to the 4% range, down from the current 6%-7.5% forecast. The Covid-19 restrictions are expected to cost the economy 1 billion ringgit (USD 239 million) a day. The restrictions have also impacted Malaysians’ wages. According to the Department of Statistics, the average monthly salaries of Malaysians in 2020 was 9% lower as compared to the year before. This is the first decrease in average salaries reported since the data was first published in 2010.

Sources: Bloomberg; NST

Myanmar

Myanmar’s healthcare struggles against COVID-19; doubts arise over military’s handling (19 July)

Reporting more than 5,300 daily new cases on average over the past week, the National Unity Government issued a warning earlier this week that 400,000 people could die if the military junta is unable to contain the country’s third wave of COVID-19. Notably, Myanmar faces dire oxygen shortage and to prevent hoarding and price gouging, many oxygen production facilities have been barred from selling to individual purchasers and may only sell to medical facilities. However, given the deep-seated mistrust in the junta however, many who are ill refuse to be tested officially and warded at treatment quarantine centers or any other healthcare facilities set up by the military.

Most fear being given substandard treatment at these facilities which have been abandoned by medics who have joined the Civil Disobedience Movement. Reportedly, only 40 of 400 health workers remained at the West Yangon General Hospital in Myanmar’s biggest city. Many are also wary of giving legitimacy to the junta by turning to it for help. This is despite the military having set up almost 2,000 quarantine centers which can house 100,000 patients, and with supplies of oxygen tanks from neighbours such as Thailand. In general, medics fear that returning to work may expose them to arrest by the military or even ostracisation by some of their peers.  While some doctors have begun underground consultations by telephone to help infected patients, they have inadequate resources to deal with the crisis.

Earlier this week, the military announced that it expects half of the population to be vaccinated by this year. However, as it stands, only about 1.6 million people have been inoculated out of a population of 54 million. Efforts are ongoing to secure more vaccines.

Sources: Radio Free Asia, Reuters, CNA

Myanmar’s deteriorating economy due to coup (20 July)

With the junta expected to remain in power, economic forecasts do not prove optimistic for Myanmar. According to a report by Oxford Economics, Myanmar’s economy could contract by 13 per cent for the financial year ending September. Political instability and business uncertainties on investments could lead to even more projects being delayed or cancelled, with total investment expected to fall over 40 per cent. A report by the International Labour Organisation (ILO) details that construction, garments, and tourism and hospitality industries were the most affected, with employment falling by 35%, 31% and 25% respectively in the first half of 2021. In total, 1.2 million jobs have been lost due to the coup, according to the ILO. Due to the pandemic, Myanmar’s economy was already in distress, with livelihoods under threat. But this has been further exacerbated by the coup, which threatens to push many in the country deep into poverty.

Sources: Business Times; Bloomberg

Thailand

Thailand’s surge in Covid-19 cases (19 July)

On 19 July, Thailand reported 11,784 new Covid-19 cases, a record high of daily infections for four consecutive days. Thailand’s Covid-19 task force also reported 81 new deaths, bringing the death toll up to 3,422 deaths and the cumulative case load to 415,170. Due to a surge in cases, the Thai authorities have imposed more restrictions. This includes extending the imposition of night-time curfews to more provinces and travel curbs. Notably, from 20 July, people living in zones marked as “dark-red” Bangkok will need a permit to travel to other provinces. The government has also banned gatherings of more than five people. Penalties can include a two-year jail term or a fine of up to 40,000 baht (USD 1,219.88) for those who continue to gather groups of more than five. The new restrictions will last until 2 August.

Despite the country currently facing its worst outbreak of Covid-19, Thailand will be reopening Koh Samui, Koh Phangan and Koh Tao on 22 July, welcoming fully vaccinated tourists. Though the islands have not had a single Covid-19 case since April, tourists are expected to be hesitant to visit due to the country’s overall pandemic numbers. Notably, Phuket, which had opened its doors to 4,000 vaccinated tourists under a pilot scheme, had tested 6 tourists to be positive for COVID-19 upon arrival but managed to stop the spread.

Sources: Straits Times; CNA; Nikkei Asia; CNA (2)

Thai protesters back on streets as pandemic frustrations build (19 Jul)

Despite social-distancing restrictions and a lockdown which has been in place since 12 July, approximately one thousand pro-democracy protesters took to the streets on 18 June, calling for PM Prayuth’s resignation, a cut in the budgets of the monarchy and the military, and the provision of mRNA vaccines. As protestors marched towards the Government House, police responded with rubber bullets, tear gas and water cannons. Several were left injured.

Recent controversies that showcase the government’s unsatisfactory handling of the present pandemic surge could have prompted protests. PM Prayuth had repeatedly assured the public that his government would secure 100 million doses of AstraZeneca by the end of 2021 but in the past week, leaked letters exchanged by Public Health Minister Anutin Charnvirakul and AstraZeneca suggest no such contracts have been reached. Many have also expressed skepticism about the efficacy of China’s Sinovac vaccine to prevent against the Delta variant and while there are talks of administering AstraZeneca boosters to those who have received the Sinovac vaccine for their first dose, this may not be possible without timely delivery of AstraZeneca shots.

In a bid to quell dissent, the government has  updated the country’s emergency decree’s clauses on free speech in mid-July. This is in response to an online petition launched earlier this month by an opposition political party formed by veteran politician Sudarat Keyuraphan, attacking the government’s handling of the delta epidemic. The campaign had collected 650,000 signatures as of 16 July. On 21 July, charges were filed against Sudarat for inciting unrest and defamation.

Sources: Nikkei Asia, CNA (1), CNA (2), CNN, Straits Times

Vietnam

Vietnam’s growth forecast slashed and supply chains disrupted as HCMC outbreak worsens (20 July – ongoing)

A continued rise in COVID-19 cases has led the Asian Development Bank (ADB) to reduce Vietnam’s GDP growth forecasts to 5.8% from 6.7%. Vietnam is still set to have the second highest growth in Southeast Asia this year, behind Singapore (6.3%). A bulk of the cases are now found in Ho Chi Minh City, which accounts for more than 60% of infections in Vietnam. HCMC has had to go into a major lockdown with all commercial activities and public gatherings forbidden. The closure of the two wholesale markets led to rumours of shortage and panic-buying. The government has issued a USD 1.13 billion (SGD 1.55 billion) support package to support businesses and employers since 1 July. Informal labourers who have lost their jobs in HCMC will also gain access to a Covid-19 relief fund, receiving VND1.5 million (USD 65.26) each.

As a major exporter of electronics and garments, Vietnam’s supply chain production has been severely affected. The government has directed corporations to house their workers at their production facilities to stem the outbreak but keep factory lines running. Samsung, which has a major presence in Vietnam, is in the midst of negotiating terms with the government and has had to cut back on production in HCMC. Other companies forced to halt production include Ikea, Nike and various Apple suppliers. The continued resurgence in HCMC and in industrial provinces like Binh Duong have led to factory closures, disrupting the production for major tech, footwear, electronics and home goods companies.

Source: VNExpress, Nikkei Asian Review, VNExpress,

Vietnam seeks to boost vaccine capacity; looks to Russia and US vaccine tech transfers (20 July)

The Vietnamese government has announced agreements on technology transfers for Russian and U.S. vaccines as it seeks to boost its own vaccine capacity. Vietnam currently has one of the lowest vaccination rates in Southeast Asia. Meanwhile, Pfizer has agreed to commit an additional 20 million vaccines, bringing the total expected Pfizer-BioNTech doses this year to 51 million. The country has also asked China for non-refundable aid of 5 million Sinopharm vaccine doses, and is due to receive 3 million doses of Moderna vaccine from the United States under the COVAX scheme this week.

Source: Reuters, Vietnam Plus

Vietnam’s National Legislative Body holds the first session of its 15th term (20 July)

Vietnam held its first working session of the 15th National Assembly on 20 July, re-electing Vuong Dinh Hue as chairman. The session was shortened by five days due to the pandemic and will last until 31 July. 50 leadership positions will be elected or formally ratified during the session, including those of the assembly, the government, and Supreme People’s Court, the top prosecution office, and the State Audit Office. The session will review Vietnam’s socio-economic circumstances and public expenditure and issue decisions on two national programs on rural development and poverty alleviation.

Source: VNExpress, VGP News