Indonesia

No Plans to Issue Regulation to Revoke KPK Bill: Jokowi (1 Nov)

 Indonesian President Joko Widodo “Jokowi” told reporters on Friday, 1 Nov that he did not intend to revoke the revised bill for the Corruption Eradication Commission (KPK). The law, which was passed in September and came into effect by default on 17 October, introduces new provisions that some claim would hinder the KPK’s effectiveness. Jokowi explained that students had filed a judicial review of the bill with the Constitutional Court, and that he did not want to interfere with the ongoing process. He also said that he was selecting members for the KPK’s new overseeing committee, and that their inauguration would take place in December 2019.

 Sources: The Straits Times, The Jakarta Post

Jokowi Announces List of 12 New Deputy Ministers (25 Oct)

 President Jokowi named 12 deputy ministers for his new cabinet on 25 October, Friday, two days after announcing the identities of the ministers. The names included technocrats such as former Indonesian ambassador to the United States Mahendra Siregar, who is the new Deputy Foreign Minister. Yet, they also included political appointments such as Deputy Defence Minister Wahyu Sakti Trenggona, a businessman affiliated with the Indonesian Democratic Party of Struggle (PDI-P) and Jokowi’s former campaign team treasurer. Politicians from the Indonesian Unity Party (Perindo) and the Indonesian Solidarity Party (PSI) were also included in the lineup, despite their parties not winning enough votes to secure a seat in parliament. Both parties had supported Jokowi’s campaign in the April elections.

 Sources: The Jakarta Post, The Straits Times, Jakarta Globe

FDI into Indonesia Surges in Q3 2019 (31 Oct)

 Foreign direct investment (FDI) into Indonesia grew 18% (year-on-year) to US$7.5 billion from July-September 2019, after sluggish investment growth in the previous two quarters. Overall, Indonesia clocked a 12.3% increase in realised investment (year-on-year) between January and September 2019, with 45.1% of the investments focusing on islands other than Java. The Investment Coordinating Board (BKPM), and its new Chairman Bahlil Lahadalia, suggested that the surge marked a return of investor confidence following a period of post-election uncertainty. While Bahlil expects FDI numbers to remain high, he also expressed hope that domestic investment, which lagged behind FDI by roughly US$2.4 billion, would overtake the latter.

 Sources: Jakarta Globe, The Jakarta Post

Indonesia to Implement ‘Negative Content’ Fines for Social Media Firms (5 Nov)

 Officials from the Indonesian Communications Ministry said that they will soon meet with social media companies to discuss plans to impose fines of up to US$36,000 for firms that allow pornography, violence or other “negative” content on their platforms. The idea behind the policy is to force social media companies to take more responsibility for controlling the content they host. Indonesia has experimented with similar rules in the past, including briefly banning Telegram and TikTok over “negative content” and coming up with a system to ban platforms that fail to respond to three government requests to engage on an issue. The fines are expected to go into effect in 2021.

 Sources: Reuters

Temporary Nickel Ore Export Ban Implemented as Authorities Probe Export Surge (29 Oct)

 Indonesia has temporarily halted nickel ore exports to conduct an investigation into alleged “massive violations” of export rules. The country announced in September that it would bring forward a ban on ore exports from 2022 to January 2020, as part of a desire to develop the domestic smelting industry. However, reports emerged that monthly nickel ore exports tripled after the announcement, breaking export quotas and prompting the government to intervene. Coordinating Minister for Maritime and Investment Affairs Luhut Pandjaitan said that exports may resume after one to two weeks, though the official ban will still come into effect in January.

 Sources: Reuters, The Straits Times

Malaysia

Tanjung Piai By-Election to be a Six-Way Fight (1 Nov – Ongoing)

 Johor’s Tanjung Piai will see a six-cornered fight in its upcoming by-election, with two independents and two small party candidates sharing the ring with Pakatan Harapan (PH)’s Karmaine Sardini and Barisan Nasional (BN)’s Wee Jeck Seng. The appointment of Wee, who is from the Malaysian Chinese Association (MCA) and held the Tanjung Piai seat from 2008-2018, reportedly stirred discontent among local members of the United Malays National Organisation (UMNO). Parti Islam Se-Malaysia (PAS) President Abdul Hadi Awang, however, said that his party was backing Wee as the opposition needed non-Muslims who are “not extremists”. The by-election will be held on 16 November, and will be an important test for the PH government.

Sources: The Straits Times, Malay Mail, Malay Mail, Free Malaysia Today

Rumours Simmer On as Mahathir Promises to Hand Over to Anwar (25 Oct – Ongoing)

 Rumours surrounding the succession plan for Prime Minister Dr Mahathir Mohamad continued to swirl over the past fortnight. Home Affairs Minister Muhyiddin Yassin said in an interview that the power transition was “inevitable”. However, PAS Secretary General Takiyuddin Hassan raised eyebrows when he said that his party wants Dr Mahathir to serve a full term.

For his part, Dr Mahathir told reporters on the sidelines of the ASEAN summit in Bangkok that he would pass the premiership to Parti Keadilan Rakyat (PKR) President Anwar Ibrahim, but declined to specify a date for the transition. He also told the Financial Times that he does not plan to leave in 2020, and that the actual date will depend on “the problems that we face”. Azmin has also been embroiled in a new controversy, as the Sarawak Report claimed that a travel agency is taking him to court over US$72,500 in outstanding bills.

Sources: Malay Mail, Sun Daily, The Star, The Straits Times, Free Malaysia Today, Malay Mail

Johor-Singapore RTS to Proceed, Though Details Remain Unclear (31 Oct – Ongoing)

 Malaysian Prime Minister Dr Mahathir said on Thursday, 31 October that his country would go ahead to construct the 4.2km long Rapid Transit System (RTS) between Johor Bahru and Singapore’s Woodlands district. The project was initially scheduled for completion in 2024, but was delayed last year as the PH government investigated its viability and cost. Malaysian Transport Minister Anthony Loke said that the cost of the RTS had been decreased by 36% to US$755 million, and criticised The Star for reporting that the government was seeking another six-month extension to decide on whether to go ahead with the project. However, Singapore Transport Minister Khaw Boon Wan noted that the project has been suspended until 30 April 2020 while Malaysia finalises the details of their proposed changes to the project.

Sources: SCMP, Malaysiakini, Channel NewsAsia

DOJ Settlement with Jho Low Could Impact 1MDB Trial (30 Oct – Ongoing)

The United States Department of Justice (DOJ) entered a US$1 billion settlement with fugitive financier Low Taek Jho over his role in the 1Malaysia Development Berhad (1MDB) saga. Under the settlement, Low agreed to give up claims to a range of assets while US authorities agreed that all disputes on asset seizure cases linked to 1MDB stand resolved. The settlement does not include an admission of guilt or wrongdoing, though the DOJ noted that it does not release Low from pending criminal proceedings against him. The spotlight will now be on the court case facing former Prime Minister Najib Razak, where the Malaysian government has attempted to build a case that Low and Najib “acted as one in all material times”.

Sources: The Straits Times, SCMP, The Straits Times

Economic News – Bank Negara Holds Rate Steady as Exports Contract (4-5 Nov)

 Malaysia’s export figures contracted by a higher-than-expected 6.8% year-on-year to US$18.7 billion in September, stoking fears about growth prospects. This drop was attributed to lower commodity exports, particularly in electrical and electronic products. Bank Negara Malaysia opted to hold the overnight policy rate at 3% during a meeting on 5 November, but economists expect at least one rate cut in 2020 as external headwinds buffet the Malaysian economy.

 Sources: Nikkei Asian Review, The Edge Markets MY

Myanmar

NLD nominates campaign leaders for 2020 elections (30 Oct)

The National League for Democracy (NLD) has nominated four senior members as its campaign leaders for the 2020 elections. The nominated individuals are party Vice Chairman and Mandalay Region Chief Minister Dr. Zaw Myint Maung, Magwe Region Chief Minister Dr. Aung Moe Nyo and NLD Central Executive Committee secretaries U Nyan Win and U Han Tha Myint. Dr Zaw Myint Maung has notably been highlighted as a potential successor to Aung San Suu Kyi, while Dr Aung Moe Nyo was recently promoted within the NLD – a move directly noted to clarify his position on the succession hierarchy. The NLD has also moved to ramp up its preparations for the elections by more closely monitoring the public image of its election candidates, noting that around half were likely to be replaced. The party warned its MPs that affiliation alone was no longer as strong a factor was the case in 2015, and has noted its disappointment with candidates who failed to live up to expectations.

 Sources: Irrawaddy, Irrawaddy, Myanmar Times

Arakan Army takes 56 police and army troops hostage in ferry raid (26 Oct – Ongoing)

The separatist Arakan Army raided a ferry transporting civilians and military personnel in the Rathedaung region of Rakhine state, taking over 168 passengers hostage before later releasing most of them, mainly women and children. Those that remained captive – numbering about 58 in all – included 14 soldiers and 29 police officers. A number of fatalities were reported as having resulted from the initial skirmish, which involved an attempted rescue by army helicopters. Since the incident, the Tatmadaw has announced that 10 security personnel and five civilians have been rescued. The Arakan Army also released a further 25 individuals later on, 21 of whom have been taken in by regional authorities for questioning. This incident marks a new peak in Arakan Army activity, and occurs just two weeks after an equally dramatic raid near Rakhine State’s Mrauk-U township, which saw 31 individuals (including 19 firefighters) taken captive by disguised Arakan Army insurgents.

 Sources: Irrawaddy, Irrawaddy, Frontier Myanmar, New York Times, Irrawaddy

Nearly 50 refugees return to Rakhine state from Bangladesh (1 Nov)

A group of 46 Rohingya are reported to have voluntarily returned to Rakhine State from Bangladesh. 42 entered via the Nga Khura border gate, with a further four returning via the Taungpyo Letwei checkpoint. Returnees had provided authorities with lists of who would be returning in advance, which were confirmed upon their arrival. This follows the arrival of an earlier contingent of 29 Rohingya, who returned the previous week. One individual from that group was detained on suspicion of involvement with the insurgent Arakan Rohingya Salvation Army. The arrival of these two groups marks the voluntary return of 397 Rohingya, who have crossed the border either on foot or by boat independently of bilateral agreement procedures between Myanmar and Bangladesh.

 Sources: Myanmar Times, Irrawaddy, Irrawaddy

US Assistant Secretary of State affirms continued support for Myanmar (30 Oct)

Assistant Secretary of State for the US David Stilwell reaffirmed his country’s commitment to supporting Myanmar’s democratic transition and economic development, in a four-day visit to the country. This comes off the back of increasing US engagement in both the public and private sectors in Myanmar, which had previously waned with the escalation of the crisis in Northern Rakhine state. Significant US companies have also recently alluded to plans to expand in Myanmar. Chief Executive of General Electric Asia-Pacific Wouter Van Versch noted plans to expand in Myanmar’s energy and healthcare sectors, while the Westin group announced it would be opening its first hotel in the country in the upcoming Yoma Central project in Yangon.

Sources: Irrawaddy, Myanmar Times, Myanmar Times

Northern Alliance announces that Tatmadaw risking retaliatory attacks (30 Oct)

Myanmar’s Northern Alliance (or Brotherhood Alliance) of Ethnic Armed Organisations (EAOs) issued a statement noting that any further actions it took were the sole responsibility of the Tatmadaw, which it accuses of being untrustworthy and belligerent despite commitments made during peace negotiations. The Northern Alliance’s statement called on the Tatmadaw to cease all operations into the alliance’s areas of control and hold genuine peace talks. It accuses the Tatmadaw of having taken advantage of a previously announced unilateral ceasefire by the alliance to intensify operations, and threatened counter-offensives. This announcement took place after both parties agreed to delay negotiations to November. Observers have nevertheless suggested that a bilateral ceasefire may come into effect during the forthcoming negotiations. The Northern Alliance comprises the Arakan Army (AA), Ta’ang National Liberation Army (TNLA) and Myanmar National Democratic Alliance Army.

 Sources: Irrawaddy, Myanmar Times, Irrawaddy, Myanmar Times

Thailand

Thailand cuts key rate again (6 Nov)

Thailand has cut its benchmark interest rate for a second time this year, in a surprise move targeted at slowing the seemingly uncontrollable growth of the Thai Baht and bolstering economic growth. The key rate was cut by 0.25 per cent to 1.25 per cent just three months after it was previously cut by the same amount in August. The Thai Baht has risen more than 8 per cent against the US Dollar since the beginning of this year, and has broadly resisted attempts to arrest its growth. This has in turn impacted Thailand’s exports significantly, with observers projecting an overall decline in FY2019. The Baht fell by up to 0.7 per cent against the USD in response to the news, but observers have noted this is likely short-lived, and it is likely to face appreciation pressure again.

Sources: Bangkok Post, Bloomberg, Straits Times

US suspends trade preferences worth US$1.3bn (26 Oct)

The Office of the US Trade Representative announced in late October that it would be suspending certain trade preferences for Thailand under its Generalised System of Preferences (GSP) programme. The suspension affects Thai seafood exports to the US, and covers about a third of the products included in the GSP programme – worth approximately US$1.3bn. The Trade Representative’s office alleged that Thailand had failed to make progress on worker’s rights issues within its seafood industry. This was despite steps taken by the Thai government to address these concerns, which have been acknowledged by the European Commission as sufficient to allow it to lift its ban on Thai seafood. In response to an appeal by the Thai Commerce Ministry to reconsider, US Commerce Secretary Wilbur Ross asserted that there remained room for negotiation.

 Source: Bangkok Post, Thai PBS, Straits Times, Nikkei Asian Review

Future Forward Party loses Nakhon Pathom by-election (24 Oct)

The opposition Future Forward Party (FFP) has lost a by-election in the city of Nakhon Pathom to a candidate from the Chart Thai Pattana party, which part of the ruling government coalition. This convincing victory by veteran politician Padermchai Sasomsap over FFP’s Mr. Pairatchote Chantharakachorn and the Democrat party’s Surachai Anutto extends the ruling coalition’s slim majority slightly, after a series of events worked to diminish its fragile lead over the opposition. Nakhon Pathom has initially been won by FFP candidate Jumpita Chantharakachorn, who defeated both Mr Surachai and Mr Padermchai in the May General Elections. However, Ms Jumpita vacated her seat on the grounds of continuing poor health. FFP leader Thanathorn Juangroongruangkit had previously positioned the Nakhon Pathom by-election as an opportunity for his party’s support base to signal its continued dissatisfaction with the ruling coalition.

 Sources: Thai PBS, Bangkok Post, Bangkok Post

CP Group signs high-speed railway contract with State Railway (25 Oct)

A consortium led by the Charoen Pokphand (CP) Group has signed an agreement with the State Railway of Thailand (SRT) to develop a high-speed train project which will link the Don Mueang and Suvarnabhumi airports near Bangkok with the U-tapao airport in Rayong. CP Group won the tender in May with a bid of 225bn Baht (US$7.4bn), which was nearly 60bn Baht (US$2bn) below the next nearest bid. However, negotiations were ongoing regarding prickly issues like land ownership rights, which stalled progress until a deadline was issued to CP Group amidst threats of fines, and blacklisting for it and other companies within its consortium on future government projects. Thailand’s government views this project as a key driver of its flagship Eastern Economic Corridor megaproject.

 Sources: Bangkok Post, Bangkok Post, Thai PBS World

String of dismissals of palace officials by Thai King continues (31 Oct)

Thailand’s King Maha Vajiralongkorn (Rama X) has persisted with the dismissal of almost ten senior officials and officers associated with royal guard units and the Royal Household Bureau, on the grounds of serious disciplinary violations. Charges levelled against those dismissed included negligence resulting in “serious damages to official matters”, behaviour not befitting individuals of their rank and station, and “extremely evil misconduct”. These dismissals come after the high-profile dismissal of Sineenat Wongvajirapakdi, who formerly held the royal title of noble royal consort, which was stripped from her due to her alleged intention to sabotage Thailand’s current queen Suthida Bajrasudhabimalalakshana.

 Sources: Bangkok Post, Channel NewsAsia, Straits Times