Chairman’s Note

Private and Confidential
For SIIA Corporate Members and Advisors
May 2024

Singapore’s Leadership Transition

Much attention is given to Singapore’s political transition in the media as well as by some analysts. On 15 May 2024, Prime Minister Lee Hsien Loong stepped down and Deputy Prime Minister Lawrence Wong was sworn in as the country’s 4^th premier. After 20 years under PM Lee, this is seen as a generational change to usher in a “4G” leadership. Some emphasise continuity while others look for changes in policies and personalities. I would like to briefly share my thoughts on some points regarding the present situation and looking slightly ahead. I am writing to you as our corporate member and friend, and I kindly ask that this be kept confidential.

1. Phased Transition: Some analysts and comments have mentioned PM Wong as a compromise candidate and expressed doubts about whether he commands the full support of his peers. I would caution against overreading the transition based on the cabinet line-up announced immediately prior to the handover. The present situation might best be characterised as a first half-step, with phases of transition ahead.

2. Appointment of DPM Gan: The appointment of Mr Gan Kim Yong as Deputy PM was not widely expected as he recently just stepped down as PAP Chairman. It indicates this as a first phase of transition, with an emphasis on continuity: Gan worked with PM Lawrence Wong during the pandemic and has the trust of now SM Lee. The shape of the 4G leadership is better evaluated going into the election and from the results.

3. Elections Upcoming: The upcoming GE will put the incoming 4G at the centre of attention.  The result will be read as a test of their political acceptance and ability to secure the continued mandate for the PAP, already the world’s longest-serving party in power in an elected system. Given recent controversies, PM Lawrence Wong is expected to select anchor ministers for key constituencies, and some older ministers may be retained for a period. His own performance will be watched too. Remember that going into the last GE, DPM Heng was the heir apparent, and coming out of the elections, it was Minister Wong who came more into focus.

4. “Tests” in foreign engagement: There will be attention given to foreign engagements and, in this period of transition, the instinct will be to watch for states “testing” the new leader and 4G. For the present, with both Lee Hsien Loong and Teo Chee Hean as Senior Ministers, this will be cushioned. But one of the greatest challenges facing PM Lawrence Wong is how he will steer Singapore in a turbulent world, and relations with the USA and China. Regarding China, it is traditional for an incoming PM to informally meet with Taiwan. With Taiwan’s own President Lai only being inaugurated later in May, this is a detail that will bear watching in the coming months.

I hope these observations might be of interest to you. If you have a particular thought or perspective to share, I would be glad to hear from you.

Yours sincerely,

Simon Tay
Chairman