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Indonesia

Jokowi Mulls Creating New Ministries for Investments, Exports (12 Mar)

President Joko Widodo (“Jokowi”) said on 12 March that he was considering forming new ministries to tackle declining investment and export growth figures. The Investment Coordinating Board (BKPM) had reported an 30% decline in foreign investment in 2018, while export growth slowed from 16% in 2017 to 6.65%. However, Corruption Eradication Commission (KPK) Chairman Agus Rahardjo urged President Jokowi to look towards reforming, or “rightsizing”, existing ministries and institutions instead of creating new ones.

Sources: Jakarta Post, Jakarta Post

Ma’ruf and Sandiago Square Off on the Debate Stage (17 Mar)

Vice Presidential Candidates Ma’ruf Amin and Sandiaga Uno participated in a live policy debate on issues such as healthcare, education and employment on Sunday, 17 March. Following a lacklustre performance during the first debate, Ma’ruf was expected to be overshadowed by Sandiaga. However, the 76-year-old running mate of incumbent President Jokowi held his own in terms of answers. PoliticaWave, a social media analytics firm, reported after the debate that Ma’ruf featured more prominently in conversations on social media than Sandiaga.

Sources: Jakarta Globe, The Straits Times, Jakarta Post

Large-scale Public Campaigning for the Presidential Election Kicks Off (24 Mar)

The public electoral campaign for both the Jokowi and Prabowo camps began on 24 March, with the two candidates being allowed to address the public in large-scale campaign events in the three weeks leading up the election. The incumbent chose to hold his first rally in Banten, Ma’ruf’s home province. The province of 12 million people, situated in West Java, firmly supported Prabowo during the 2014 election. The President’s campaign team ostensibly seeks to leverage Ma’ruf’s ties to the province to drum up support, but electability polls in the region suggest that Prabowo is still in the lead here. Jokowi maintains a double-digit lead over Prabowo in national level electability polls.

Sources: The Straits Times, Tempo.co, The Straits Times

Spending Surge in Pre-Election Indonesia to Boost Economy in Q1 (26 Mar)

Accelerating election activity is fuelling a spike in Indonesian government spending. In the first two months of 2019, expenditures were recorded at US$10.3 billion, 14% higher than the same period from 2018. Much of this expenditure came from increased social assistance outlays such as US$7.1 billion worth of fuel subsidies and US$2.4 billion in conditional aid spending. Bank Indonesia said that the fiscal boost will help the economy maintain its expansion of 5.2% in the first quarter of 2019 amid high consumption rates. However, risks such as the slowdown in China, ongoing trade tensions and weakening export demand will have a dampening effect on Indonesia’s economic prospects.

Sources: Bloomberg

Malaysia

PPBM Welcomes 8 Ex-Umno Reps into its Sabah Branch (15 mar)

Parti Pribumi Bersatu Malaysia (PPBM) officially welcomed eight former United Malays National Organisation (UMNO) reps, including four federal MPs, into its Sabah branch on 15 March. This move boosted the number of seats held by PPBM from 22 to 26, and brings Pakatan Harapan (PH) within nine seats of a two-thirds majority in the Dewan Rakyat. The Sabah branch of PPBM is due to launch on 6 April, though Dr Mahathir Mohamad has assured members of Warisan, which is allied with PH, that he has no intention of side-lining or replacing them.

Sources: Free Malaysia Today, The Straits Times

UMNO Members Claim Trial Over Assaulting Anti-Najib Protestors (22, 28 Mar)

UMNO Supreme Council member Lokman Noor Adam and a group of other UMNO supporters allegedly manhandled a group of Universiti Malaya students who were staging a peaceful demonstration against Former-Prime Minister Najib Razak on 22 March. Online footage shows a large clown-faced cutout of Najib was torn up by Lokman during the melee. While Khairy Jamaluddin tweeted that the thuggish behaviour of the UMNO supporters was unacceptable and must be condemned, Lokman has refused to apologise, and claimed that his actions resonated with the sentiments of the common people. Regardless, Lokman and three others faced a variety of charges at the magistrate’s court on 28 March, and their case will be up for mention on 16 May.

Sources: Free Malaysia Today, Malay Mail, New Straits Times

Interview Between Nurul Izzah and the Straits Times Sets Off Social Media Firestorm (24-28 Mar)

Parti Keadilan Rakyat leader Nurul Izzah gave an interview to the Straits Times on 24 March, and remarked during the proceedings that her “heart’s been broken” over the past year in politics. During an earlier news item by the Straits Times on 22 March, it was also revealed that Nurul intends to withdraw from national politics once her current term as MP runs out. She had also resigned from her post on the Public Accounts Committee, ostensibly over disagreements about the government’s move to retain the committee chair. While PH had pledged in its manifesto to reserve the role for an opposition lawmaker, the incumbent chair, Ronald Kiandee, had just switched parties to PPBM.

Sources: The Straits Times, The Star

Nurul’s comments, particular regarding having to work with a “former dictator who wreaked so much damage”, ignited a storm of comments from Malaysia. Economic Affairs Minister Amin Ali tweeted that the country needs doers, “not cry-babies”, earning a rebuke from Party President Anwar Ibrahim. Dr Mahathir weighed in, musing that he is equally disappointed with those who expressed disappoint in him. Even Khairy Jamaluddin joined in the online melee, taking the opportunity to claim that Azmin lacks vision and direction and is unable to provide solutions for the nation’s economic woes.

Sources: The Straits Times, Malay Mail, Malay Mail, Malaysiakini

China to Reduce ECRL Cost by US$2.45 billion (25 Mar)

Daim Zainuddin, Malaysia’s lead negotiator on the China-backed East Coast Rail Link (ECRL) project, announced on 22 March that the Chinese government has agreed to reduce the cost of the project by US$2.45 billion. However, this elicited some confusion among commentators as the contractor, China Communication Construction Company, had offered to cut construction costs on the then-US$20 billion project in half in February. Furthermore, Dr Mahathir said on 20 March that the true cost of the ECRL was US$32 billion due to interest costs. Regardless, Daim asserted that Beijing was hoping to conclude a revised deal on 2 April, before Dr Mahathir visits China for the Belt and Road Initiative summit on 25-27 April.

Sources: South China Morning Post, The Edge Markets, The Straits Times

High Court: Najib’s SRC Trial to Start on the Third of April (28 Mar)

One of Former-Prime Minister Najib Razak’s will start on Wednesday, 3 April, after being postponed twice due to procedural issues and appeals filed by his defence team. The decision by the High Court comes a day after the Federal Court ruled against another application to delay the trial on 27 March. The charges at hand, which include three counts of criminal breach of trust and one of power abuse, relate to US$10 million belonging to former 1Malaysia Development Berhad (1MDB) unit SRC International Sdn Bhd.

Sources: South China Morning Post, Malay Mail

Malaysia Poised to Bail Out Debt-Laden FELDA (29 Mar)

A Straits Times Report on 29 March said that the Malaysian government is considering a US$735 million rescue package to ease cash flow for the Federal Land Development Authority (FELDA). A White Paper on the government agency will be tabled before the current legislative sitting ends on 11 April, and is expected to explain how it managed to accumulate such debts under the controversial listing of FELDA Global Ventures in 2012. If the rescue package is passed, this will be the third major bailout of a state agency (after Tabung Haji and 1MDB) since the Pakatan Harapan government took office in May 2018.

Sources: The Straits Times

Myanmar

Chin State Product and Investment Fair attracts more than US$54 Million in investment (18 Mar)

The government of Chin State signed four Memoranda of Understanding with private companies for projects worth a total of US$54 million at the Chin State Product and Investment Fair, held in Yangon from the 16th to 17th of March. The fair was organised by the Ministry of Investment and Foreign Economic Relations and the British government’s UK Aid. It is part of a broader initiative under the Myanmar Investment Promotion Plan to encourage foreign investment in Myanmar’s ethnic states.

Source: Irrawaddy

National Export Strategy updated to address constraints on competitiveness (18 Mar)

Myanmar’s Ministry of Commerce organised a Stakeholder’s Symposium to discuss updating the National Export Strategy on the 15th of March, gathering representatives from the public and private sector to advise on how the forthcoming National Export Strategy 2020-2025 could be improved. Points discussed were the need to address competitiveness constraints and improve regulatory systems.  The Ministry of Commerce also announced it was adding fruits and vegetables, gems and jewelry, handicrafts, processed food products and digital business as potential export sectors for the updated NES.

Sources: Myanmar Times, Myanmar Times

Sembcorp Myingyan combined-cycle gas power plant begins full operations (18 Mar)

The Sembcorp-Myingyan combined-cycle gas power plant began full operations on the 16th of March. It has a contracted capacity of 225 megawatts, and is being provided gas from the Shwe Natural Gas Project by Myanmar’s Ministry of Electricity and Energy. The plant is estimated to be able to produce 1500 gigawatt-hours per year, which will meet the needs of up to 5.3 million residents. The Sembcorp-Myingyan power plant is operated on a Build-Operate-Transfer basis by Singapore’s Sembcorp, which won the bid to build the plant in the country’s first competitively tender for a facility of this type.

Source: Myanmar Times

US Senators call for sanctions on Senior General Min Aung Hlaing (20 Mar)

Senators Edward J. Markey (D-Mass.), Todd Young (R-Ind.), Jeff Merkley (D-Ore.), and Dick Durbin (D-Ill.) sent a letter to US Secretary of State Mike Pompeo calling for the imposition of targeted sanctions against Tatmadaw Senior General Min Aung Hlaing. The United States already sanctions five officials, who were directly implicated in military operations in Rakhine state. It has thus far refrained from imposing further sanctions on officials higher in the Tatmadaw’s hierarchy.

Sources: Channel NewsAsia, Office of Senator Jeff Merkley

Inconclusive peace talks held between civilian government and non-signatories of NCA (21 Mar)

Peace talks held on the 21st of March between Myanmar’s National Peace and Reconciliation Centre (NPRC) and non-signatories of the National Ceasefire Agreement – including the Arakan Army – have proven inconclusive. This marks the first time the government has called these groups to attend collective discussions. The NPRC is personally headed by State Counsellor Aung San Suu Kyi, though it is unclear if she was in attendance at the negotiations. Representatives of the non-signatory organisations agreed to continue discussing the ceasefire pact despite the absence of firm commitments.

Sources: Radio Free Asia, Reuters, Irrawaddy

Myanmar Supreme Court agrees to rule on Reuters reporters’ appeal (26 Mar)

Myanmar’s Supreme Court heard the appeal of imprisoned Reuters journalists Wa Lone and Kyaw Soe Oo. The two journalists had been imprisoned on the grounds of having violated Myanmar’s official secrets act by handling classified government documents. They have since appealed the ruling on the grounds that the prosecution had provided insufficient evidence to justify the ruling that had been reached. Yangon’s high court had rejected an earlier appeal. Supreme Court Justice Soe Naing adjourned the case at the end of Tuesday’s hearing, and has not announced a date for the court’s ruling.

Sources: Reuters, Radio Free Asia

FDI increases year-on-year for the first time in two years (28 Mar)

From the 1st of October 2018 to the 15th of March 2019, Myanmar received US$1.9bn in approved investment, compared to the US$1.3bn received during the same period the previous year. This marks the first such increase in FDI since the NLD entered government in 2016. Singapore was also recorded as having overtaken China as Myanmar’s single largest investor, having invested US$20.88bn in 302 projects, compared to China’s US$20.41bn in 314 projects.

Source: Myanmar Times, Eleven Myanmar

Thailand

Thai Princess Ubolratana Spotted at Thaksin’s Daughter’s Wedding (22 Mar)

Thai Princess Ubolratana Rajakanya was sighted at the wedding of Former-Prime Minister Thaksin Shinawatra’s youngest daughter in Hong Kong on Friday, 22 March. The Princess, whose candidacy as Prime Minister was swiftly halted by her brother King Maha Vajiralongkorn in February, has been known for her close ties with the Shinawatras. The Thai Public Prosecutor’s Office said on Tuesday, 19 March that efforts to extradite Thaksin were underway, only to clarify the following day that they lacked the information to follow through with the extradition process.

Sources: South China Morning Post, Khaosod English

Complaints about Election Commission Incompetence Continue to Emerge (25-29 Mar)

The Thai Election Commission (EC) has come under fire for inconsistent vote reporting and irregularities over the entire elections process. Voter turnout, which was initially estimated to be at 65.96%, was suddenly updated to 74% a few days later. Reports of unusually high numbers of disqualified ballots, as well as ballot tallies in which the total number of ballots cast exceeded the number of participating voters have also surfaced. In response to criticisms about election coverage, the EC Deputy Secretary-General blamed media organisations, insisting that the EC only provides the raw data for them to process. Yet, complaints have continued to mount as differing ‘final’ vote tallies have been released and withdrawn in the lead-up to Friday, 29 March, when the full results were supposed to be released.

Sources: Channel NewsAsia, Bangkok Post (Op-Ed)

Snubs – Democrats Fare Poorly (25 Mar)

The Democrats, Thailand’s oldest political party, performed poorly during the 24 March election. The party placed fourth in the popular vote according to unofficial results, and failed to win any seats in their traditional stronghold of Bangkok. In response, party leader and Former-Prime Minister Abhisit Vejjajiva announced his resignation as leader on 24 March. All in, the Democrats are expected to have control roughly 50 seats. Deputy Leader Korn Chatikavanich has also stated that they will not be joining Pheu Thai in a coalition, leaving the door open for an alliance with Phalang Pracharat.

Sources: Channel NewsAsia, The Nation

Surprises – Phalang Pracharat Wins the Most Votes (25 Mar)

The pro-junta Phalang Pracharat party won 8.4 million votes during the 24 March election, making it the party with the most votes. With a projected share of roughly 120 seats, this puts its Prime Ministerial candidate, Prayuth Chan-ocha, in prime position to be re-elected once the official results are released on 9 May. However, the party will have to forge a coalition with others to achieve a majority in the 500-seat Thai parliament.

Sources: The Nation

Surprises – Future Forward and Bhumjaithai Outperform Expectations (25 Mar)

The Future Forward party has emerged as a new force in Thai politics, and is likely to become the third biggest party in the Thai parliament. Its leader, auto-parts group scion Thanatorn Juangroongruangkit, has said that he will not run for premier. However, he expressed that Future Forward is ready to join an anti-military government. Meanwhile, the prosecutor’s office remains mum about whether Thanatorn and two senior party members will be indicted for violating the computer crime act in their election activities. The decision, which was due on 26 March, has been postponed until 26 April.

Sources: Channel NewsAsia, Khaosod English

Bhunjaithai also surprised observers with its performance in the election, and is on course to become the fifth biggest party in the Thai parliament. Its leader, Anutin Charnvirakul, had run on a unique platform of legalising recreational marijuana and ride-hailing services. With roughly 50 seats under their control, they have become a sought-after kingmaker for Pheu Thai and Phalang Pracharat alike. However, the party has said that they will wait until 9 May, when the EC is expected to release the official results, before making a decision about who to join.

Sources: Khaosod English, ThaiPBS World

Pheu Thai Announces Coalition and Ambitions to Form Government (27 Mar)

The Pheu Thai party announced the creation of an anti-junta coalition on Wednesday, 27 March, along with six other parties such as Future Forward, Seri Ruam Thai and Pheu Chart. Pheu Thai had won the most seats during the 24 March election (while placing second in terms of vote tally behind Phalang Pracharat), but it does not have enough seats to form a government on its own. In comparison, this coalition is reported to represent at least 255 of the 500 seats in parliament. Extensive horse-trading was reported behind the scenes, with Future Forward leader Thanatorn reporting that Pheu Thai had offered him the Prime Ministership. Further horse trading is expected as the allegiance of parties such as Bhumjaithai are sought.

However, a key concern is that the coalition will not be able to prevent the re-election of incumbent Prime Minister Prayuth Chan-ocha, though it will be able to pose a formidable challenge to Prayuth’s minority government. Coalition leaders are thus concerned about “red cards” or “yellow cards” in the lead-up to the official results, which could chip away at the coalition’s seat share by putting forth accusations of breaking election rules.

Sources: The Straits Times, Bangkok Post

Bank of Thailand: GDP Growth of 3.9% in 2019, EEC policy to be resilient (29 Mar)

Don Nakornthab, Senior Director for Macroeconomic and Monetary Policy at the Bank of Thailand, predicted that GDP growth for 2019 will be at 3.9%. The key factors to economic growth in Thailand in 2019 are expected to be the US-China trade war, the health of the Chinese economy, the progress of the Eastern Economic Corridor (EEC) and post-election stability. The EEC in particular, with projects such as the U-Tapao airport and upgrading Laem Chabang port, is expected to be a main driver of economic growth for years to come. The Bank of Thailand is also satisfied with current levels of inflation in the Thai economy, and is unlikely to raise the current policy rate of 1.75%.

Sources: Bangkok Post, The Nation

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