[PREMIUM] Country Updates: 15-28 April 2021

Myanmar

Asean leaders gathered in Jakarta with junta leader to discuss Myanmar crisis (24 April)

On 24 April, ASEAN leaders met for an emergency summit to try and bring an end to the violence and instability in Myanmar following the military coup. Notably, Senior General MIn Aung Hlaing attended the session despite protests by the country’s parallel government, the National Unity Government (NUG), who seek legitimacy in the eyes of the international community.

The summit led to a five-point consensus on next steps, including calling for the cessation of violence and the creation of a special ASEAN envoy to visit the country and mediate dialogue. It marks a good first step and as Singapore Prime Minister Lee Hsien Loong rightly pointed out, “”Silence and inaction would undermine Asean’s centrality, credibility and relevance”. However, the effectiveness of ASEAN’s attempt to engage remains to be seen. Reportedly, on Saturday, as the junta chief attended the meeting, soldiers and police continued to fire on protesters near Naypyidaw.

There were mixed domestic reactions after the summit, with the NUG first expressing that the ASEAN’s statement was “encouraging” but later saying that the summit nonetheless fell short of their goals. One of the groups behind the protests (the General Strike Committee of Nationalities) also denounced the ASEAN consensus and viewed it as a major obstacle.

Source: Straits Times (1), Straits Times (2), CNA (1), CNA (2)

Ethnic armed group seizes military base near Thai border (27 April)

Heavy fighting erupted near the eastern border with Thailand on Tuesday (April 27), when insurgents from the Karen National Union (KNU), Myanmar’s oldest rebel force, attacked and seized a Myanmar army outpost. The military retaliated hours later with airstrikes on two villages. In recent weeks, intensified violence in the border region has displaced more than 24,000 people from their homes. The latest escalation comes days after the junta chief, Min Aung Hlaing, committed to ending violence at a regional ASEAN summit in Jakarta.

On Tuesday, the military appeared to backtrack from the statement it had agreed to at the ASEAN meeting. In an official report, the junta said Myanmar would carefully consider suggestions made by regional leaders “when the situation returns to stability”. Its present priority was to maintain law and order. More than 750 people have been killed and 3,441 detained since the military takeover on February 1, according to the Assistance Association for Political Prisoners in Burma. Killings and detentions have continued in recent days.

Sources: Guardian; Reuters; CNA

Thailand

Thailand reports another daily record of 15 COVID-19 deaths (27 April)

On 27 Apr, Thailand reported 15 new COVID-19 deaths and 2,179 new daily infections as part of a fast-rising third wave that has prompted new restrictions in the country. Thailand’s total number of infections reached 57,500 as of 26 April, up from just 29,000 in early April. The country has since imposed new restrictions including closures of cinemas, parks, gyms, swimming pools, spas and nurseries. Wearing masks has also been made compulsory in public spaces.
 
In light of the situation, Thailand is reworking its vaccine strategy. While the country has plans to vaccinate half the population by the end of the year, so far, only 1 per cent of the population has received the vaccine. This week, Prime Minister Prayut Chan-o-cha will meet industry groups, including the Thai Chamber of Commerce and the Tourism Council of Thailand, to discuss ways to accelerate vaccine roll-out. Sources say the private sector may now be roped in to secure vaccines for employees.

Sources: CNA (1), CNA (2), Straits Times

Thai central bank likely to slash GDP forecasts after new virus outbreak (26 April)

Thailand’s central bank is likely to slash its economic growth outlook for 2021 and 2022 given the country’s third-wave of COVID-19 infections. Earlier growth projections had forecast a 3 per cent GDP growth this year and 4.7 per cent in the next year, but these numbers had been contingent on the country’s plans to gradually reopen to vaccinated tourists.

With the recent rapid spread of the virus however, the central bank’s forecasts for three million foreign tourists this year and 20 million next year will be difficult to meet. Analysts now say it will likely take four to five years before Thailand would see a return to pre-pandemic levels of 40 million foreign tourists a year. Notably, Thailand’s tourism sector accounts for 11 per cent of GDP and employs over 10 million people.

Source: Bangkok Post, Business Times

Indonesia

Indonesia faces vaccine supply shortage, turns to China for help (21 April)

Doubts are swirling around Indonesia’s plan to inoculate 181.5 million people by the end of the year, as the country grapples with supply shortages and delays in vaccine shipments. As of April 20, Indonesia has inoculated just over 4 per cent of its population, or 11.2 million people, according to Oxford University’s Our World in Data tracker. The country had made arrangements for the import of 104 million doses of AstraZeneca vaccines, but delivery has been hit by a series of delays. Out of 50 million doses secured through a bilateral deal, only 20 million will arrive in 2021. The remaining 30 million doses will only arrive in the second quarter of 2022. It had also been set to receive 54 million AstraZeneca doses in phases via the COVAX global vaccine-sharing facility but this has been set back since India restricted exports of the vaccine amidst the surge of cases there.

This has increased Indonesia’s short-run reliance on Chinese-made vaccines. The Chinese firm Sinovac has supplied about 56 million doses thus far. Indonesia also expects to receive more than 20.2 million doses in the coming months from Sinopharm, another Chinese manufacturer, and the U.S. pharmaceutical firm Moderna. In a phone call on 20 April, Chinese President Xi Jinping said to Indonesia president Joko Widodo that China will work with Indonesia to close the “vaccination divide” and would help Indonesia to build a regional vaccine production centre.

Sources: The Diplomat; SCMP

Submarine disaster caused by “powerful underwater wave” according to officials (27 April)

The fatal sinking of the KRI Nanggala-402 submarine was caused by a “powerful underwater wave” according to the Indonesian Navy. The submarine went missing during a naval exercise in Bali. The debris from the vessel was found on 25 April by the Indonesia navy, with support from Singapore’s MV Swift Rescue, a submarine support and rescue vessel. All 53 crew members on board were reported dead.

The KRI Nanggala 402 is a German-built submarine that had been in service since 1981, and underwent a full refit in South Korea that was completed in 2012. The navy has denied allegations of poor maintenance of the aging submarine, human errors, as well as a rumor circulating on social media that it had been shot by a foreign vessel.

Sources: Nikkei Asia; Straits Times; Straits Times (2)

Indonesian regional intelligence chief killed in rebel attack (26 April)

The Papua regional intelligence chief was killed in an ambush attack by the West Papua National Liberation Army, a separatist rebel group. General I Gusti Putu Danny Karya Nugraha, was shot dead during a shootout after rebels opened fire at a patrolling security forces unit in the central Papuan highlands. General Danny was the first general to die in combat in Indonesia’s history. President Jokowi has called for the army and police to arrest every rebel involved in the attack.

Military operations in the region have been ramped up in recent weeks after rebel groups torched several schools and a helicopter, killing soldiers and teachers. The Papua region (the western half of the New Guinea island) was occupied and annexed by Indonesia in the 1960s, but Indigenous Papuans have been waging a low-level insurgency campaign for independence for decades.

Sources: Straits Times; New York Times

Malaysia

Malaysia unveils 10-year plan to rescue oil and gas sector (28 April)

Malaysia has launched an ambitious 10-year blueprint to revive its failing oil and gas sector, which has been negatively impacted by low oil prices and the Covid-19 pandemic. The National OGSE Industry Blueprint 2021-2030 aims to provide direction for oil and gas companies to improve their competitiveness, efficiency and technological capabilities, according to Minister in the Prime Minister’s Department Datuk Seri Mustapa Mohamed. The plan outlines incentives for mergers, consortium-building and technology adoption. A RM25 million OGSE Development Grant was also introduced to help smaller firms commercialise innovative solutions. The Industry Blueprint will also be expected to continue to provide 60 thousand jobs and push companies in the sector towards increased sustainability reporting and business practices. 

The oil and gas sector is a crucial industry for the Malaysian economy, making up to a fifth of the country’s pre-Covid-19 gross domestic product. Last year, oil giant Petronas had slashed a third of its RM50 billion capital expenditure budget, most of which was dedicated to the domestic market. Local oil and gas companies’ reliance on Petronas meant that over 700 companies went dormant last year. The blueprint targets to see the sector contribute up to RM50 billion to Malaysia’s GDP by the end of the decade, up from RM21 billion last year.

Sources: Straits Times; Sun Daily

Muhyiddin’s approval rating improves despite criticism from Opposition over his handling of the pandemic (20-23 April)

Malaysian Prime Minister Muhyiddin Yassin’s approval rating rose to 67% in April, up from 63% in January, according to pollster Merdeka Center. Muhyiddin enjoys strong support from the Malays at 83%, while the Chinese and Indian communities recorded 30% and 66% support respectively. Muhyiddin’s approval ratings have barely dipped, despite Malaysia experiencing its worst wave of coronavirus infections earlier this year. Muhyiddin’s popularity amongst Malay voters remains a key consideration for his Perikatan Nasional coalition, especially since UMNO, the largest party in his government, indicated that they will be parting ways ahead of the next election.

The poll results come as former Prime Minister Mahathir Mohamad said “the Malays are angry with the Malaysian king” for the suffering caused as a result of the state of emergency. Dr. Mahathir claims the anger with the King is expressed by the Malays on social media and it is “unusual” for the Malays to get angry with the ruler. The state of emergency took effect on 11 January and is to last until Aug 1 at the latest. Malaysia’s opposition leaders have been requesting an audience with the king to end the emergency so that parliamentary sessions can resume. A general election is expected to be called once the state of emergency ends.

Sources: Malay Mail; Today Online; Straits Times

Vietnam

Vietnam’s vaccine drive faces hurdles (16 April – ongoing)

Vietnam’s health ministry has called for a faster vaccine rollout with the delivered doses under the COVAX scheme facing a looming expiry date. The AstraZeneca vaccine has a shelf life of 6 months but only arrived in Vietnam on 1 April, with two months left till expiration.

However, the health ministry confirmed that the COVAX facility will be sufficient to vaccinate all its frontline workers with the 38.9 million doses pledged. Talks are also ongoing for the private sector to be involved to import and commercialize the use of vaccines.

The virus situation still appears under control in Vietnam with new cases reported as imported cases. Yet, the government has continued to urge caution and warned of a risk of COVID-19 resurgence.

Sources: Reuters, VNExpress

Vietnam aims to welcome international visitors in Q3 (27 April – Ongoing)

Vietnam’s tourism authorities are hoping to test a pilot program to welcome international visitors to Vietnam from July to September. The Ministry of Culture, Sports and Tourism is considering a plan from the government of Quang Nam Province to allow South Korean visitors in with a vaccine passport. They will need to test negative before departure to spend up to five days at two oceanfront resorts in the province without quarantine. The proposal is awaiting the prime minister’s approval.

Sources: Vietnam Insider, Vietnam Plus, DTI News